金融依赖型产业脆弱性的测度与影响因素  

The Measurement and Factors in the Fragility of Finance-Dependent Industries

作　　者：刘培森[1] 尹希果[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《金融论坛》2016年第3期30-47,共18页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:金融依赖型产业的脆弱性研究(13BJL079);重庆大学中央高校基本科研业务经费资助项目:新经济地理学视角下的制造业集聚及其影响因素研究(CDJXS12011102)

摘　　要：本文利用因子分析方法测度金融依赖型产业的脆弱性,分析产业脆弱性的影响因素。研究发现,煤炭开采和洗选业等17个行业为金融依赖型产业,石油和天然气开采业等21个行业为一般产业;金融依赖型产业和一般产业的脆弱性均存在显著的M形变化趋势,金融依赖型产业比一般产业更具有脆弱性,金融依赖型产业脆弱性的波动幅度小于一般产业;一年期贷款利率上升、贷款规模扩大、税金负担和财务费用增加会增强金融依赖型产业的脆弱性,M_2与金融机构存款比值上升会降低金融依赖型产业的脆弱性。In this paper, the factor analysis method is used to measure the fragility of finance-dependent industries and analyze the factors to influence the fragility. It＇s found that 17 industries including coal mining ＆ washing are finance- dependent industries, and 21 industries including oil and gas industries are general industries; the fragility of finance-de- pendent and general industries show an obvious M-shaped trend, finance-dependent industries are more fragile than gen- eral industries, and the fluctuation in the fragility of finance-dependent industries is less than that of general industries; the increase in the interest rates of one-year＇ s lending, growth of loan size, and increases in tax burden and financial expenses will result in an increase in the fragility of finance-dependent industries, and the increase in the ratio of M2 and the deposits of financial institution will reduce the fragility.

关 键 词：金融依赖 产业脆弱性 典型相关 因子分析 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F832.4