鱼雷生产定型实航工作可靠度的Bayes评估方法  

A Bayesian Evaluation Method for Trial Reliability of Torpedo Production Approval

作　　者：杨策[1] 董理[2] 张志华[2] 刘海涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]海军装备研究院系统所,北京100161 [2]海军工程大学,武汉430033

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2016年第3期123-126,131,共5页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：海军工程大学自然科学基金资助项目(HGDQNJJ13001)

摘　　要：鱼雷实航工作可靠度是鱼雷可靠性评定中的重要指标。针对鱼雷生产定型试验量小的特点,提出一种综合利用不同研制阶段可靠性信息的Bayes评估方法。实例分析表明,该方法通过合理利用设计定型阶段和生产定型阶段的先验信息,可以有效减小生产定型阶段的试验量,具有良好的评估精度。Torpedo trial reliability is an important index in torpedo reliability assessment. Aiming at the problem of lacking data for torpedo test,a Bayesian evaluation method is presented by synthetically using the reliability information in different developing phases. Experimental results show that the testing amount is effectively reduced by reasonably using the prior information of designing and manufacturing typification,and the evaluation results bears preferable precision.

关 键 词：生产定型 BAYES方法 可靠性 鱼雷 实航工作可靠度 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]