祖国大陆对台湾农产品出口贸易关系持续期研究  

Factors affecting trade relation duration of the mainland agricultural products exporting to Taiwan

作　　者：陈银忠[1] 吴凤娇[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川外国语大学国别经济与国际商务研究中心,重庆400031 [2]闽南师范大学商学院,福建漳州363000

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第1期1-6,16,共7页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：福建省社科规划项目(2014B172);福建省科技厅软科学项目(2014R0079)

摘　　要：选取2003-2014年祖国大陆对台湾HS-6分位农产品出口贸易数据,构建生存函数和离散时间Cloglog风险模型,探讨大陆对台湾农产品出口贸易关系持续期分布及其影响因素。结果表明:大陆对台湾农产品出口贸易关系持续期明显偏短,中位生存时间仅为2年,3年的生存率仅有39.8%。同时,大陆对台湾农产品出口重要程度对贸易关系持续期有显著的正向效应,而人民币对"新台币"汇率变动、大陆对台湾农产品前期出口经历则加大了贸易关系持续的难度。要实现大陆对台湾农产品出口的稳定增长,应实施加大优势农产品出口比重、保持人民币汇率稳定等政策以延长其贸易关系持续期。The survival function and discrete-time cloglog risk model is built to estimate trade relation duration of the mainland agricul-tural products exporting to Taiwan and the determinants by HS-6 agricultural product trade data from 2003 to 2014. The findings indicate that the duration is very short with 2 years＇ median time and survival rate of 3 years is 39.8%. Meanwhile the importance of agricultural product export has positive effect on duration,but exchange rate of RMB against Taiwan Dollar and export experience has made trade relations difficult. Therefore,government should enlarge the export proportion of competitive agricultural products and keep the RMB exchange rate stable to extend trade relation duration.

关 键 词：祖国大陆 台湾地区 农产品出口 贸易关系持续期 生存函数 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济]