一种新型雷电潜势预报指数的构建与试验  

Construction and Experiment of a New Lightning Potential Index

作　　者：赵玮[1] 熊亚军[2,3] 郭金兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气象台,北京100089 [2]京津冀环境气象预报预警中心,北京100089 [3]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089

出　　处：《干旱气象》2016年第1期173-180,共8页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：2015年度北京市局创新团队"城市气候评估研究"和中国气象局城市气象研究所基本科研业务专项基金(IUMKY201303PP0103)共同资助

摘　　要：利用WRF模式输出的0^-20℃层5种水成物粒子质量混合比及垂直上升速度变量,结合雷暴云碰撞非感应起电机制,构建了一种新型的雷电潜势指数(lightning potential index,简称LPI)。量纲分析结果表明,LPI指数本质上是一种能量指数,能够用来定量衡量雷暴云中的起电放电潜势。利用北京地区2007年9月2日和2015年7月16~17日的2次典型雷电天气过程对LPI指数的应用情况进行实例验证,结果表明:LPI指数与闪电活动在时间演变上具有较好的一致性,在空间分布上也具有较好的对应关系,它能够模拟出闪电活动的变化情况及峰值特征,其时间序列与闪电活动具有显著的正相关性。LPI指数计算方案简洁,物理意义明确,在精细化雷电潜势客观预报中具有一定的应用价值和前景。Combined with thunderstorm cloud collision non- inductive charging mechanism and based on the WRF module output data that contained five kinds of hydrometeors quality mixing ratio and vertical velocity variables from 0 ℃ layer to- 20 ℃ level,a new lightning potential index（ LPI） has been created in this paper. The dimensional analysis showed that LPI was a kind of energy index,it could be used to measure the potential power of thunderstorm electrification and discharging. Two typical thunderstorm cases were investigated by using the new LPI index,which occurred in Beijing on 2 September 2007 and 16- 17 July 2015. The results showed that the time series of the LPI and lightning had a significant positive correlation. It was easy to generate lightning when the LPI index was positive. In spatial characteristics,there was also a good corresponding relationship between LPI index and lightning. The LPI index has a concise calculation program,a clear physical meaning and application prospect in fine lightning potential forecast in the future.

关 键 词：雷电潜势指数LPI WRF模式 典型雷电天气过程 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]