工业化、人口转型与长期农业增长的差异化路径  

Industrialization,Demographic Transition and the Differentiation of Long-term Agricultural Growth Path

作　　者：郭剑雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院

出　　处：《中国人民大学学报》2016年第2期58-68,共11页Journal of Renmin University of China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"城镇化背景下现代农民的成长机制及政策环境研究"(14BJY031);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"人口生产偏好转变与内生农业发展"(10JJD790034)

摘　　要：传统农业、工业化农业和现代农业分别存在马尔萨斯稳态、索洛稳态和现代持续增长稳态三种不同的产出增长结构。传统农业经由工业化农业向现代农业的发展,亦即马尔萨斯稳态经索洛稳态向现代持续增长稳态的渐进过渡。离开工业化的外部冲击,难以设想突破传统农业低技术均衡的前一种过渡;而人口生产转型则是工业化农业成长为现代农业的内生动力。当前中国农业发展政策调节的基本目标,仍是通过劳动力转移继续完成马尔萨斯稳态向索洛稳态的过渡,同时应前瞻性地为人力资本引入农业生产创设条件。Malthus steady state,Solow steady state and modern sustainable growth steady state respectively exist in traditional agriculture,industrial agriculture and modern agriculture.The process traditional agriculture developing into modern agriculture by industrial agriculture is a gradual transition from Malthus steady state to modern sustainable growth steady state by Solow steady state.It is hard to imagine a breakthrough in low technology balance of traditional agricultural without the external shock of industrialization.While the demographic transition is the endogenous dynamic from industrial agriculture to modern agriculture,at present,the basic aim of China＇s agricultural development policy is still to complete the transition from Malthus steady state to Solow steady state by labor transfer,and create conditions for introducing human capital into agricultural production.

关 键 词：农业增长 人口转型 工业化 稳态过渡 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F323[社会学—人口学] C924.2