我国城镇居民消费结构变动影响因素及趋势研究  

Research of Influencing Factors and Trends of Urban Residents' Consumption Structure in China

作　　者：王雪琪[1] 赵彦云[2,1,3,4] 范超[5,1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院 [2]中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心 [3]中国统计学会 [4]中国统计教育学会 [5]国家统计局国际统计信息中心

出　　处：《统计研究》2016年第2期61-67,共7页Statistical Research

摘　　要：本文利用我国2003—2013年的省际面板数据,通过动态面板GMM估计方法,研究了人口年龄结构和消费习惯对我国城镇居民消费结构的影响,克服了消费总量分析中产品维度上的"加总谬误"。实证研究表明:1人口年龄结构显著影响城镇居民消费结构,儿童对文教娱乐、老年人对居住和医疗消费需求较强;2我国城镇居民的消费支出存在较强的惯性,消费习惯和收入是影响城镇居民消费结构最为关键的因素;3在提高居民收入、降低实际利率和控制房价的背景下,未来我国城镇居民家庭消费结构将呈现稳中有变、趋向享受型消费的特点。With the rapid development of China＇ s economy, the consumption structure of urban and rural residents has changed significaptly. This paper conducts a dynamic panel analysis of the impact of consumption custom and population age structure on urban household consumption using Chinese provincial panel data during the period 2003-2013, which overcomes the ＂ plus total fallacy＂ on product dimension in total consumption analysis. The results suggest that （1） Population age structure of urban household influence consumption structure significantly. In eight kinds of consumer expenditure, children have the largest demand for cultural and educational entertainment and the old have a large demand for living and medical care.（ 2） The consumption expenditure of urban residents in China has a strong habit formation. Income and consumers＇ habit formation are the most two important factors influencing consumption structure. （3） In the background of increasing income, lowering real interest rate and controlling house price, urban residents＇ consumption structure will keep stable with some changes and trends to enjoying type consumption.

关 键 词：消费习惯 人口年龄结构 消费结构 广义矩估计 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]