不同城市的房价是否具有相同的人口集聚效应——基于35个大中城市PVAR模型的实证分析  

Does the House Price in Different Cities Have the Same Population Agglomeration Effect:Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model of Thirty-five Large and Medium Scale Cities

作　　者：楚尔鸣[1] 何鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2016年第3期81-89,共9页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<空间非一致性;房地产价格波动与最优货币政策选择研究>(71273221)

摘　　要：人口集聚会引起房价上涨,但不同类型的城市由于集聚人口的教育程度不同,房价上涨也具有不同的效应。首先建立人口流动理论模型分析人口集聚对房价上涨的影响,然后通过建立房价、人口集聚、房地产投资和人均可支配收入的PVAR模型进行实证分析。结论表明,一类城市人口集聚对房价上涨具有正效应,二类城市为平效应,三类城市为负效应;三类城市的房价上涨主要是房地产投资和人均收入提高所推动的。The gathering of population will raise house price, house prices also have different effects on different types of cities due to the different education degree. First, this paper establishes the population mobility theory model to analyze the effect of population concentration on the rise of housing price. Then the PVAR model, set up on real estate price, increasing population, investment in real estate and the per capita disposable income, is analyzed empirically. The analysis indicates that resident agglomeration in the first-tier cities has positive effect, and flat effect on second-tier, negative effect on third-tier cities. The major motivation of house price raises in third-tier cities is that the investment of real estate and the increases of per capita income.

关 键 词：房价 人口集聚 PVAR 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]