气候变化背景下广西甘蔗秋旱演变特征分析  

Change characteristics of sugarcane autumn drought in Guangxi,China under background of climate change

作　　者：卢小凤 匡昭敏[2] 李莉[2] 刘一江[3] 

机构地区：[1]广西气象服务中心,南宁530022 [2]广西气象减灾研究所,南宁530022 [3]南京农业大学,南京210095

出　　处：《南方农业学报》2016年第2期217-222,共6页Journal of Southern Agriculture

基　　金：国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项重点项目(GYHY201406030);广西自然科学基金项目(2013GXNSFAA019282;2014GXNS FBA118219)

摘　　要：【目的】研究气候变化背景下广西甘蔗秋季干旱的演变特征,为提高甘蔗生产应对气候变化的能力提供参考依据。【方法】利用1961-2010年广西降水资料和甘蔗资料,借助数理统计方法结合甘蔗需水特点确定甘蔗秋旱的评价指标,并基于地理信息系统分析干旱的空间分布及演变特征。【结果】近50年来,广西甘蔗秋季轻度干旱发生频率较高的地区主要是桂西和桂南蔗区,中度和重度干旱的高发区主要位于桂中和桂东北蔗区。在气候变化背景下,1991-2010年相比1961-1990年,大部蔗区中度以上甘蔗干旱频率增加26%-45%,重度以上干旱频率增加16%-35%;中度以上甘蔗干旱强度增加0.1-5.2 d,重度以上干旱强度增加0.1-4.8 d。【结论】20世纪90年代以后,广西甘蔗秋季中度和重度以上干旱发生的频率和强度总体呈增加和加重趋势,一些年份秋季干旱日数增加,干旱对甘蔗生产的影响程度加重。【Objective】The change characteristics of sugarcane autumn drought under the background of climate change in Guangxi were analyzed, in order to provide some references for improving ability of sugarcane production to respond to climate change. 【Method】Based on meteorological data and sugarcane data during 1961-2010 in Guangxi, the indexes for sugarcane droughts in autumn were determined by using mathematical statistics method, combined with water demand feature of sugarcane. And the spatial distribution and change characteristics of droughts were analyzed based on geographical information system. 【Result】In nearly 50 years, the light drought occurred with high frequency in sugarcane planting regions of Western and Southern Guangxi, the moderate and severe drought occurred with high frequency in sugarcane planting regions of Central and Northeast Guangxi. Under the background of climate change, during 1991-2010,the frequency of moderate and above moderate droughts increased by 26%-45%, and the frequency of severe and above severe droughts increased by 16%-35% in most of the places; the intensity of moderate and above moderate drought increased by 0.1-5.2 d, and the intensity of severe or above severe drought increased by 0.1-4.8 d, compared with 1961-1990.【Conclusion】The frequency and intensity of moderate and severe droughts or above severe droughts have increased in Guangxi since the 1990＇s, and autumn drought days increase in some years, and sugarcane production is more deeply influenced by autumn drought.

关 键 词：气候变化 甘蔗 秋季干旱 演变特征 广西 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]