集合扩散模拟技术在应急决策中的应用研究  

Application research of ensemble dispersion modeling technology in the process of emergency decision-making

作　　者：范丹[1] 姚仁太[1] 徐向军[1] 闫江雨[1] 崔慧玲[1] 黄莎[1] 李继祥[1] 张芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国辐射防护研究院,太原030006

出　　处：《辐射防护》2016年第2期86-93,103,共9页Radiation Protection

摘　　要：应用集合扩散模拟的概念,结合不同的气象场与扩散场模式,以某厂址的现场实验为研究对象进行中小尺度集合大气扩散模拟研究。将多模式模拟结果与现场实验结果进行集合分析,从空间分析、时间分析与离散度检验三方面对各类集合分析指标进行研究。结果表明:集合扩散模拟与分析可综合考虑多模式计算结果,给出烟云可能覆盖区域范围与概率、不同置信度水平的烟云浓度分布、关心点(区域)的烟云浓度变化、烟云到达与离去时间概率等,同时可结合监测结果进一步判断与修订模拟结果从而更加接近真实值。将集合扩散模拟方法应用于应急决策领域具有现实指导意义。The paper presents a mesoscale and microscale ensemble dispersion simulation based on a field tracer experiment which applied the concept of ensemble dispersion modeling and combined with different meteorological flows and atmospheric dispersion models. Ensemble analysis is carried out between simulation results of multi-model and the field experimental results. The ensemble analysis indicators are studied from three aspects, including spatial analysis, time analysis and discrete test. The results show that： the ensemble dispersion simulation and analysis considers the calculation results of different modes, and gives the potential coverage area range and probability of contaminant, the contaminant concentration distribution with different confidence levels, contaminant concentration change at interest points （regional）, the probability of plume arrival and departure time etc. Meanwhile, through further determine and revise combining with the monitoring results, simulation results can get close to the real value. Thus, the application of ensemble dispersion modeling technology to emergency decision-making field is of great practical guidance.

关 键 词：集合扩散模拟 中小尺度 示踪实验 集合分析 

分 类 号：X591[环境科学与工程—环境工程]