基于最优评价方法的我国能源结构低碳评价研究  

Research on Evaluation of China's Energy Structure to Low Carbon Based on the Optimal Evaluation Method

作　　者：许珊[1] 范德成[1] 王韶华[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2016年第5期186-192,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目"基于低碳经济的节能减排实现路径与绩效评价研究"(13YJA630016);河北省社会科学基金项目"京津冀区域产业结构与环境质量耦合机理及模拟调控研究"(HB14YJ009);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目"基于低碳经济的能源结构优化研究"(20122304110018);燕山大学青年教师自主研究计划项目"基于灵敏度分析的河北省能源结构调整的碳减排效应研究"(14SKA003)

摘　　要：根据广义距离最小原理构建最优评价方法选择模型,并据此认为粗糙集理论相对于熵值法更加适用于2000—2013年我国能源结构低碳的评价。粗糙集理论的评价结果显示,我国能源结构低碳水平主要由二氧化硫排放、二氧化碳排放、人均GDP增长率、化学需氧量、能源消费量等具体指标综合反映;"先污染后治理"的环境思想以及能源规划与经济发展的脱节使得近年来我国能源结构低碳水平起伏较大。因此,我国能源结构低碳调整应以社会经济效益为重心,以能源规划效益为手段,兼顾环境效益的提高,逐渐由"又快又好发展"向"又好又快发展"的经济发展方式转变。According to the generalized distance minimum principle, the choosing model for the optimal evaluation method is built. Based on the model, the rough set theory is taken to be more suitable for China~ energy structure to low carbon in 2000 -2013 than the entropy. The evaluation results show that China~ energy structure to low carbon was mainly reflected comprehensively by SO2 emissions, CO2 emissions, growth rate of per capita GDP, COD, energy consumption, etc. Addi- tionally, the environmental thought with ＂treatment after pollution＂, as well as the imbalance between the energy planning and economic development made China~ energy structure to low carbon fluctuation in recent years. Therefore, China~ ener- gy structure adjustment to low carbon should take the social and economic benefits as the center of gravity, the energy plan- ning benefits as means, pay attention to environmental benefits, and transform economic development way from the ＂fast and good development＂ to the ＂good and fast development＂.

关 键 词：我国 能源结构低碳调整 评价 最优评价方法 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F113.3