决策者剔除的重复群决策方法  

Repeated grey group decision-making model discriminable for invalid decision-maker

作　　者：宋捷[1,2] 姚天祥[2,3] 徐宁[4] 党耀国[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学中国制造业发展研究院,南京211100 [2]南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,南京210044 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [4]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211100

出　　处：《控制与决策》2016年第3期564-570,共7页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71371098;71071077;71171116);中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(NC2012001;NZ2010006;NR2011009;NR2013015);高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2012JDXM005);中国制造业研究院开放课题项目(SK20140090-7)

摘　　要：针对同样决策场景下对多组决策方案反复评估的决策问题,建立对无效决策者剔除以及确定决策结果的模型.使用优化模型确定指标权重,提出决策者评价向量差异度的衡量方法,由此对无效决策者甄别和剔除,在此基础上建立基于灰靶的决策模型以确定最优方案,并建立下次决策时的决策者权重计算方法.模型充分利用历史信息,对决策者进行评价约束,可以有效提高决策质量.最后通过实例表明了所提出算法的有效性和可行性.Aiming at solving repeated calculation of several decision-making programs in the same decision-making scenarios, a model is established, which can eliminate the invalid decision-maker and screen the optimal decision program. In order to identify and get rid of the invalid decision makers, an optimized model of calculating the index weight and a method based on ：the vector difference degree evaluating the performance of decision makers are proposed. Then, the grey-target decision-making model is used to choose the optimal program. At the same time, the method of calculating the weight value of different decision makers for the next decision can be obtained for the next decision. The history information can be made full use of and the assessment of the decision makers can be restricted by the proposed model, which can improve the quality of decision effectively. Finally, the numerical cases are given to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：群决策 权重 灰靶 无效决策者剔除 

分 类 号：N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]