全国森林面积和森林蓄积年度出数方法探讨  

Discussion on Methods for Annual National Producing Estimates of Forest Area and Forest Stock in China

作　　者：王雪军[1] 张煜星[1] 黄国胜[1] 马炜[1] 曾伟生[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家林业局调查规划设计院,北京100714

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报》2016年第1期9-18,共10页Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis

基　　金：科技部科技伙伴计划"东南亚国家森林资源合作监测技术建设"(KY201402011);国家林业公益行业科研专项(20150430302)~~

摘　　要：基于全国第8次森林资源连续清查的41.5万个地面样地数据和全国林地利用保护规划的"一张图"成果数据,采用全国20×20 km2抽样框架设计系统抽样和分层抽样,探讨全国森林资源森林面积、森林蓄积年度出数的基本方法。研究结果表明:(1)虽然采用系统抽样计算得到全国森林面积抽样精度为97.5%,在精度要求之内,但对于各省来说,森林面积的抽样精度较差;(2)对比分析不同抽样方式结果,采用系统抽样和分层抽样的全国森林蓄积量出数的抽样精度均在95%以上,与第8次清查实际数相差低于3%以下,森林资源分布稀少或行政面积小的省精度相对较差。(3)满足国家出数并兼顾省级总体要求,在全国统一框架基础上,优化设计各省地面样地体系,全国共布设24 760个地面样地,约为现行体系样地数量的1/17,每省约为800个样地,大大减少现行体系的地面调查样地,能实现由5年出数向每年出数的转变。(4)全国森林蓄积分层抽样方法,与基于高分辨遥感影像的样地判读方式获取森林面积方法结合,可以实现森林面积和森林蓄积的年度出数,实现森林面积和森林蓄积的年度出数,能有效解决全国森林资源数据的时效性问题,是目前值得推荐使用的可行方法。Based on the data from 415,000 sample plots of the 8th National Forest continued Inventory（ NFCI） and＂one map＂of national forestland spacial distribution data,a basic method for annual national producing estimates of forest resources was experimented by systematic sampling and stratified sampling in a national 20＊ 20 km2 sampling framework.The results showed that：（ 1） the sampling accuracy of the national forest area was 97.5%,but the sampling precision was relatively low for some provinces;（ 2） as for annual national estimates of forest resources,both systematic sampling and stratified sampling had an over 95% high sampling precision,and a less than 3% small deviation compared to 8th NFCI data.But the sampling precision was relatively low for some provinces,which were small in provincial administrative area or lack of forest resources.（ 3） On the basis of national sampling framework,an optimization design was brought out for provincial ground sample plot system.Under it,the amount of ground sample plots reduced to 24 760 ground sample plots on the national scale,which was 1 / 17 of current system,equal to only about 800 samples for each province. All this makes it possible to transform 5 years estimation of forest resources into annual estimates,which meets the requirements of annual estimates at the national and provincial levels.（ 4） The practical method proposed in this paper combines high-resolution remote sensing image and field validation,whick could be used to estimate the national forest area,resources and other data annually,and effectively.

关 键 词：国家森林资源连续清查 林地“一张图” 分层抽样 森林蓄积 年度出数 

分 类 号：S757.2[农业科学—森林经理学]