和林格尔城镇建设用地需求量预测与分析  

Prediction and Analysis on the Town Construction Land Demand in Helinge'er

作　　者：胡宇琛[1] 赵明[1] 周瑞平[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022

出　　处：《内蒙古师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第1期145-148,共4页Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University：Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition

摘　　要：本文以和林格尔县2005-2014年城镇建设用地的相关数据为基础数据,以2020年为规划目标年,采用目标增长率法、趋势外推法、回归分析法及灰色预测等方法,科学地预测和林格尔县建设用地影响因子及未来建设用地的需求量,同时对各种预测方法所得的结果进行对比,预测出2020年和林格尔县城镇建设用地需求量为5 039.29hm2。预测结果表明,采用平均值是更好地对几种方法进行同时修正,通过几种方案的评价选优作出较为准确的建设用地需求量预测,为土地利用总体规划提供依据。Using the relevant data about the town construction land between 2005 and 2014in Helinge＇er County,this paper targets at the land planning in 2020 by adopting goal growth rate method,trend extrapolation,regression analysis and grey prediction etc.Also,this paper makes a scientific prediction about the impact factor and future demand in the need of construction land.Meanwhile,we compare the results of different predicting methods and get the amount of land need for town construction in 2020,which is 5039.29hm2.The results shows that using the average number of different methods is a more accurate way to make the prediction,thus providing basis for the overall planning in land utilization.

关 键 词：建设用地 预测方法 影响因子 需求量预测 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]