基于WHMLUCC水文模型的非一致性干旱频率计算方法(Ⅰ):原理与方法  

Inconsistent Drought Frequency Calculation Method Based on WHMLUCC Hydrological Model( Ⅰ) :Principles and Algorithm

作　　者：谢平[1,2] 李析男[1,3] 陈丽[4] 雷旭[1,2] 顾海挺[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430072 [3]贵州省水利水电勘测设计研究院,贵州贵阳550002 [4]长江科学院,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第1期1-5,共5页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179131;51579181;51190094);贵州省科技计划(黔科合SY字[2015]3006)

摘　　要：由于全球气候变暖、大规模人类活动等变化环境的影响,改变了干旱的成因和统计分布规律,造成干旱频率增加、重现期缩小,使得干旱序列失去了一致性。本文针对变化环境下形成的非一致性干旱问题,结合考虑土地利用/覆被变化的流域水文模型WHMLUCC,提出基于WHMLUCC模型的非一致性干旱频率计算方法,并从成因途径推求不同情景变化环境下的干旱频率分布规律,为流域干旱预测和干旱规划提供理论方法和科学依据。The changing environment such as global warming and large scale human activities changes the cause and statistical distribution law of drought,results in the increase of the drought occurrence frequency and the decrease of the return period and makes the drought sequence lost its consistency. Aiming at the inconsistent drought problem in the changing environment,combined with the watershed hydrological model WHMLUCC considering land use / cover change,in this paper,the inconsistent drought frequency calculation method based on WHMLUCC model was proposed,the drought frequency distributions in different scenarios in changing environment from genetic approach were calculated,and these would provide a scientific basis for the basin drought prediction and drought planning.

关 键 词：水资源 干旱 WHMLUCC模型 非一致性 频率分析 

分 类 号：TV131[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学] P332[天文地球—水文科学]