典型干旱指标在海河流域的适用性评价  

Applicability Evaluation of Typical Drought Indexes in the Haihe River Basin

作　　者：韩宇平[1] 马海娇[1] 严登华[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450045 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第1期6-14,共9页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B00));国家自然科学基金项目(51279063);水利部"948"项目(201328)

摘　　要：海河流域属温带半湿润、半干旱大陆性季风气候区。近年来,随着气候变化和人类活动的影响加剧,干旱灾害已经成为严重制约海河流域社会经济发展的主要因素之一。本文在国内外干旱指标研究的基础上,从气象和综合干旱指标中选取具有典型性且在我国应用广泛的降水量距平百分率、降水Z指数和帕默尔干旱指数(PDSI),综合参考海河流域历史资料,选取1965、1972、1999、1980—1982年作为典型旱灾年,将其史料记载与基于降水距平百分率、降水Z指数和帕默尔干旱指数的海河流域春、夏、秋3季逐月干旱评价结果进行对比分析。结果表明,3种干旱指标中帕默尔干旱指数与典型旱灾年都能很好地吻合。另外,选取典型研究区(北京市),对比分析3种干旱指标评价结果与北京市历史旱灾情况的吻合度,进一步验证了帕默尔干旱指数评价结果的适用性。The Haihe River basin is a temperate semi-humid and semi-arid continental monsoon climate zone. In recent years,with the increasing impact of climate change and human activities,drought hazard has become one of the main factors that seriously hampered the social-economic development of the Haihe River basin. Based on the research on drought indexes at home and abroad,we selected typical and widely used precipitation anomaly percentage,Z index of precipitation and Palmer drought index from the meteorological and composite drought indexes to evaluate its historical drought. And comprehensively referring to the historical datum in the Haihe River basin,we selected 1965,1972,1999,from 1980 to 1982 as the typical drought years,and compared the historical records with monthly drought evaluation results of spring,summer and autumn three seasons based on precipitation anomaly percentage,Z index of precipitation and Palmer drought index. The results show that in three drought indexes,the evaluation results of Palmer drought index coincided with the typical drought year each other very well. Moreover,we selected Beijing as typical study area to compare and analyze the the goodness of fit of the evaluation results with the historical drought,which would verify the applicability of the evaluation results of Palmer drought index.

关 键 词：干旱指标 降水距平百分率 降水Z指数 PDSI 适用性评价 海河流域 北京市 

分 类 号：TV882.51[水利工程—水利水电工程] P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]