基于分布动态法和空间计量法的环渤海区域经济格局演变研究  

The research of regional economic pattern evolution in Bohai Sea Ring Area based on the methods of dynamic distribution and spatial econometrics

作　　者：邹玮[1,2] 杨羽頔 孙才志[3] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学外国语学院,辽宁大连116029 [3]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《辽宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第1期111-120,共10页Journal of Liaoning Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(12JJD190032)

摘　　要：选取环渤海地区以县级区域为基础的129个研究单元,以人均GDP为经济发展衡量指标,运用分布动态方法(马尔可夫链,核密度估计)和空间计量方法(探索性空间数据分析)对该区域经济格局演变情况进行分析.结果显示:环渤海地区经济格局呈现出从区域间经济差距拉大,到中等发展水平区县增加的大体趋势,整个区域发展更加均衡化,但低水平区域分布密度大,空间集中的情况仍然突出;整体区域集聚水平呈空间正相关,相关程度先波动上升,后稳定下降,高高集聚区域扩大且分布更加分散,低低集聚区域有所缩减,但在辽西至冀东北一带进一步扩张;沿海区县率先快速发展并逐渐向内陆渗透也表明了海洋区位优势对区域经济格局的重要影响.Due to the impact of factors such as natural resources,industrial structure,urbanization rate,human capital,location and so on,the development of regional economy usually demonstrated unbalanced state.This state could bring both positive and negative effects that have a great influence on the coordinated development of regional economy.Analysing the evolution process of regional economic pattern deeply can help to find the economic evolution law of the whole area and provide reference for the sustainable development of regional economy.Because of that,choosing 129 research units based on county-class districts in Bohai Sea Ring Area,taking per capita GDP as the indicator measuring regional economic environment,we analyzed the evolution of regional economic pattern by using the methods of Dynamic distribution（Markov chains,Kernel density estimation）and Spatial econometrics（ESDA model）.The results indicated that the economic pattern of Bohai sea ring area demonstrated an evolution trend from enlarging of inter-regional economic gap to increasing in the number of medium-level counties.The development of whole area revealed more equalization that is beneficial to the coordinated development of regional economy.According to the calculated results of ergodic distribution,this trend of equalization will likely continue for some time to come.But the situation that low-level counties had a high distribution density and more spatial concentration was still remarkable.The whole regional agglomeration level had a positive correlation characteristics in space.The degree of correlation increased fluctuating primarily and then fell steadily.The regions with high-high correlation expanded and distributed more dispersedly.The regions with low-low correlation reduced a little,but the region from west part of Liaoning Province to northeastern part of Hebei Province expanded further.The leading development of coastal counties and the following advance of inland counties showed the advantage of ocean location had a significan

关 键 词：环渤海 经济格局演变 马尔可夫链 核密度估计 ESDA模型 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]