山西省旅游产业发展潜力测度与评价  

The measurement and evaluation of the development potential of tourism industry in Shanxi Province

作　　者：郝金连[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029 [2]山西大同大学历史与旅游文化学院,山西大同037009

出　　处：《辽宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第1期127-131,共5页Journal of Liaoning Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：山西省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2012248);山西省哲学社会科学基金项目(晋规办字(2010)4号)

摘　　要：从旅游系统角度选择旅游发展支持力和保障力、市场需求和供给潜力4个方面构建评价指标体系,运用因子分析法对山西省2004-2013年旅游发展潜力进行评估.结果表明:基础和保障条件是主导影响因素.山西省旅游产业发展潜力呈现出由慢到快、由不稳定到稳步提升的上升态势,潜力指数由2004年的-1.187上升至2013年的1.500,增长2.687个单位.发展潜力未能有效发挥.未来应强化宏观调控力度,通过旅游资源的合理有序开发、产业结构的优化升级、居民收入的增加和消费结构的改善,进一步做强旅游产业.By choosing tourism development support ability,tourism development guarantee ability,tourism market demand potential and tourism market supply potential from the perspective of the entirety tourism system to build evaluation system,we investigate the tourism industry development potential in Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2013years using factor analysis method.The results show that the basic conditions and guarantee conditions are major influence factors.The tourism industry development potential in Shanxi Province showed rising trend,from slow to fast,from unstable to rising steadily,potential index from-1.187 in 2004up to 1.500 in 2013,increased by 2.687 units.The tourism industry development potential has not been effectively played.In the future,making strong tourism industry should continue to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control efforts,develop tourism resources reasonably and orderly,optimize the industrial structure,increase people＇s income,improve the consumption structure.

关 键 词：旅游产业 发展潜力 因子分析法 山西省 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]