“一带一路”基础设施投资对我国经济拉动作用的实证分析——基于多部门投入产出视角  

An Empirical Analysis of the Promotion of China's Economy by the Infrastructure Investment of the “One Belt and One Road”: From the Perspective of Multi-Sectoral Input-Output

作　　者：王继源[1] 陈璋[1] 龙少波[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [2]重庆大学公共管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《江西财经大学学报》2016年第2期11-19,共9页Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家统计局2012投入产出研究课题重点资助项目"从投入产出表来看经济增长动力的转换"(IO12-ZD06);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助"‘新常态’下中国就业脆弱性问题研究"(15XNH050)

摘　　要："一带一路"是实现"中国梦"的伟大战略构想,自提出以来国内学者针对"一带一路"的意义和影响已经做了大量定性分析,但该倡议会对中国经济产生多大的拉动效果,国内不同行业的受益程度究竟有何差异,尚缺乏定量分析。以"一带一路"基础设施投资为出发点,根据WIOD非竞争投入产出表,运用Leontief需求拉动模型实证测算了沿线国家基建投资对我国各部门的短期拉动效果。模型结果显示,当地水电气供应、交通运输和邮政电信业部门的各1亿美元总投入,在最大情况下会分别拉动我国0.3072、0.3979、0.4142美元总产品,0.078、0.105、0.103美元GDP。国内的金属冶炼、电器制造、运输设备、通用制造、金融、商务服务、批发、交通运输等行业都会受到明显的拉动效应。＂ One Belt and One Road＂ is a great strategic initiative to achieve the Ch inese Dream. Since it is proposed, many domestic scholars have been making lots of qualitative analysis of its significances and influences; however, there are short of quantitative analysis concerning its pulling effect on China＇s economy and the differences of the benefit degree among the different domestic industries. Starting from the infrastructure investment of the＂ One Belt and One Road＂ and based on the non-competitive input-output table of WIOD, this paper establishes a Leontief demand pull model to measure the short-term pulling effect of the infrastructure investment of the countries along the route on China＇s different departments. The results show that total investment of 1 dollar in each sector of local electricity, gas and water supply, communication and transportation, post and telecommunications will at the most promote China＇s total product by 0.3072 dollar, 0.3979 dollar and0.4141 dollar, the GDP by 0.0780 dollar, 0.1051 dollar and 0.103 dollar. Significant pulling effect can be found in China＇s industries, such as metal smelting, electrical appliances manufacturing, transportation equipment, machinery manufacturing, financial service, commercial services, wholesale, communication and transportation, and so on.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 基础设施 需求拉动 产能过剩 投入产出 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]