2013年北京地区一次强对流降水天气成因分析  

Cause Analysis of a Severe Convective Precipitation Process in Beijing Area in 2013

作　　者：耿建军[1] 李浚河[1] 杜佳[1] 吴剑坤 刘璐[1] 张淅妍 

机构地区：[1]北京市气象局,北京100089

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2016年第1期52-58,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项"风廓线雷达组网观测资料业务化应用研究(201306136)"课题资助

摘　　要：通过对2013年6月6日20时-7日20时北京地区出现的中到大雨、局地暴雨的天气过程的大尺度天气环流背景、物理量场、北京多普勒雷达产品和海淀风廓线探测数据、VDRAS反演物理量等多种资料详细分析,得出如下结论：1）本次过程500 h Pa北京处于从河套以东至长江中下游地区的低槽槽前,温度槽落后于高度槽,地面处于东高西低的形势场中。2）北京处于850 h Paθ（se）高能舌的前部,为对流性天气的出现提供了良好的能量条件。3）强回波在单点稳定少动或多个降水云团先后经过同一地区,造成该地区降水偏大。4）超低空急流加强,且风向由东南转为偏南,南风分量明显加大,有利于水汽的输送和辐合,有利于出现短时强降水。5）据VDRAS反演物理量场的分析,某地区较长时间处于扰动温度相对大值区（0.9-1.2℃）,与该区域降水较大相对应。强回波的合并与维持和其位于东南风和偏南风的辐合区中相关联。6）对EC、T639数值模式降水预报的检验表明,数值模式对明显大尺度系统影响的降水过程预报效果较好,EC对本次过程的预报能力优于T639。From 20： 00 June 6,2013 to 20： 00 June 7,2013 a moderate-to-heavy rain appeared in Beijing,even heavy rain occurred in some region. Synoptic scale environment conditions,physics parameters fields,Beijing Doppler radar products,Haidian wind profile and retrieval physical quantities from VDRAS（ variation Doppler radar analysis system） are analyzed. Results are as follows. 1） At 500 h Pa,Beijing was in front of tough which from Hetao area and to middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river.Temperature tough lagging behind height tough over the baroclinic zone in the troposphere is favorable to system developing. Surface chart shows high east and low west situation. 2） Beijing in front of 850 h Paθ（se）high energy tongue,which does benefit to accumulate and trigger of unstable energy for convective weather. 3） Strong echo maintained and stilled or several strong echo passed by the same region is helpful to short term heavy rain. 4） Very low jet stream strengthened and wind direction transformed from southeast to south do benefit to water vapor transportation and convergence,which help to short-term heavy rain occurring to some extent. 5） The higher perturbation temperature（ 0. 9-1. 2 ℃） maintained in some region is corresponding to heavy rain in the same region by retrieval physical quantities analysis from VDRAS. The strong echo merged and maintained is relate to the convergence of southeast and south wind. 6） The EC and T639 model inspection of precipitation forecast showed that it is possible to forecast the precipitation process affected by large-scale background and the forecast result adjust to actual situation with prediction aging. The performance of EC is better than that of T639.

关 键 词：θse高能舌 VDRAS 列车效应 模式检验 

分 类 号：P458.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]