德菲尔法构建重大动物疫病预警指标体系  

Construction of Index System for Early-warning of Major Animal Epidemic Diseases by Delphi Method

作　　者：李沛丽[1] 张华 李涛 周碧君[1,3] 徐秋星 程振涛[1,3] 王开功[1,3] 文明[1,3] 温贵兰[1,3] 冯旭芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵州大学动物科学学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]贵州省农业委员会,贵州贵阳550001 [3]贵州省动物疫病与兽医公共卫生重点实验室,贵州贵阳550025 [4]贵州省六盘水市农业委员会,贵州六盘水553000

出　　处：《中国动物检疫》2016年第3期77-80,共4页China Animal Health Inspection

基　　金：贵州省农业科技攻关项目--贵州省主要人畜共患病综合防控技术研究(黔科合NY字[2011]3061号);贵州省农业科技攻关项目--山羊繁殖障碍性疫病防控关键技术研究与示范(黔科合NY字[2011]3105号);贵州省农业委员会科技计划项目--贵州省2013年重大动物疫病省级定点监测(2013-06号);贵州省农业委员会科技计划项目--2014年贵州省重大动物疫病省级定点监测(2014-06号)

摘　　要：[目的 ]构建重大动物疫病暴发流行预警指标体系。[方法 ]以禽流感和口蹄疫为例,采用文献调研法和德菲尔专家咨询法中的专家会议法初拟重大动物疫病预警体系的框架和指标;应用德菲尔专家咨询法评价预警指标的重要性、可操作性;应用组合权重法比较各指标综合影响的大小,并将指标分类。[结果 ]筛选出禽流感和口蹄疫预警预报一级指标6项(易感动物、饲养管理和免疫情况等)以及二级指标14项(免疫效果、环境消毒、温度等),并将指标分为三类(关键指标、重要指标和一般指标)。[结论 ]初步构建了重大动物疫病暴发流行预警指标体系。[Objective]To establish an early-warning indicator system on occurrence of major animal epidemic disease. [Methods]Literature review and experts consensus were used to formulate early warning system framework and indicators of FMD and AI. The importance,maneuverability and expert opinions of early warning system indicators were confirmed by Delphi expert consultation. Furthermore, comprehensive influence of all indicators were compared and classified with CW（Combined Weights）. [Results]Six first-level（susceptible animals,Feeding and management Meteorological factors）and 14 second-level indicators（immune effect,environmental disinfection,temperature,etc）were determined, and three classes of indicators（key,important and normal）were divided based on the importance and maneuverability.[Conclusion]The early-warning indicator system of FMD and AI outbreaks were initially established.

关 键 词：重大动物疫病 预警体系 德菲尔法 组合权重法 

分 类 号：S851.3[农业科学—预防兽医学]