约束盟国的逻辑与困境  

The Logic and Dilemma of Alliance Restraint

作　　者：节大磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院,北京100871

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2016年第3期74-94,158,共21页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：在同盟政治当中,如何成功地约束盟国、使之放弃损害自己安全利益的政策是国际关系理论与现实中的一个重要课题。在事关双方重大安全利益的事项上,约束一方需要传递两种可信的信息:一是约束一方认同被约束一方的战略目标;二是约束一方反对被约束一方可能采取的策略手段。战略安抚和策略施压是防止盟国采取违反自己重大安全利益行动的两个并行措施,但二者的可信性较易相互削弱,这也正是约束盟国的困境所在。在美国约束以色列的案例中,奥巴马政府成功地结合了战略安抚和策略施压,使之放弃了军事打击伊朗核设施的计划。而在美国约束格鲁吉亚的案例中,小布什政府对后者几乎无条件和全方位的长期支持使得战略安抚和策略施压之间严重失衡。萨卡什维利政府有恃无恐地对南奥塞梯使用武力,从而引发了俄格战争,也标志着美国约束格鲁吉亚的努力归于失败。美国试图约束以色列以及格鲁吉亚的两个案例一方面为论点提供了支持,另一方面也说明成功约束盟国的困难性。When a powerful state attempts to restrain its smaller allies and partners from taking certain risky and provocative actions,the logic of power asymmetry suggests that success should be the rule.Yet small allies often defy their powerful patrons,which poses a significant puzzle for students of alliance politics and alliance management.The key to successful alliance restraint lies in an artful combination of strategic assurance and tactical pressure.Two recent cases of alliance restraint are examined to test the hypothesis.In the case of the U.S.restraint of Israel,the Obama administration successfully combined strategic assurance and tactical pressure to dissuade the latter from conducting a preventive strike against Iran's nuclear program.On the other hand,in the case of the U.S.restraint of Georgia,the Bush administration's unwavering support and uncritical attitude led to an unhealthy imbalance between strategic assurance and tactical pressure.With the Saakashivili government having attacked South Ossetia and drawn Russia into the war,the U.S.alliance restraint turned out to be a totally failure.

关 键 词：联盟政治 约束盟国 战略安抚 策略施压 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]