四川省“十三五”用电量预测及比较分析  

Projection and comparative analysis of power consumption of Sichuan Province in 13th Five- year Plan

作　　者：陈强[1] 马文光[1] 黄炜斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《人民长江》2016年第5期1-5,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展"973"计划资助项目(2013CB036406-4);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50539140);美国能源基金会"中国可持续能源"(G-0610-08581)

摘　　要：如何保障电力供需平衡一直是四川省电力市场研究的核心问题,需要科学的电力发展规划并合理地安排电力投资,因此准确地把握电力消费的规律,做好电量需求预测就显得极为必要。在对四川省2000年以来的用电情况进行简要分析的基础上,结合经济社会发展对全省用电需求趋势的影响,采用电力弹性系数法、相对产值单耗法以及灰色模型法,对四川省2015~2020年的用电量进行测算。根据测算结果进行了比较分析,得到了高中低3个方案,可以代表四川省＂十三五＂时期的用电量水平。Balance between the power demand and supply is a core issue of the research on electricity market of Sichuan Province,which requires a scientific planning of power industry and a rational investment in power development. It is therefore essential to have a good understanding to power consumption law and an accurate estimation of power demand. Based on a brief analysis of power consumption of Sichuan Province since 2000 and the effects of economic and social development on the trend of power demand,its power consumption in the years of 2015 to 2020 is calculated through methods of electricity elasticity coefficient,consumption per unit of relative output,and gray model. According to the comparative analysis of the calculation results,three results of low,medium and high power consumption are obtained,which reflects the power consumption level of Sichuan province in the 13 th Five- year Plan.

关 键 词：用电量预测 弹性系数 相对产值 灰色模型 四川省 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]