基于灰色理论的公交候车排队客流预测  

Prediction of Bus Station Passenger Waiting Queue Based on the Grey System Theory

作　　者：胥少龙 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学智能交通实验室,北京100144

出　　处：《道路交通与安全》2016年第1期39-42,共4页Road Traffic & Safety

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划<动静态一体化城市交通智能联网联控技术集成及示范>(2014BAG03B01)

摘　　要：通过对公交站点的候车排队客流调查分析,研究了站点排队客流的特征,针对候车排队客流周期波动的特征,采用灰色理论的研究方法对于候车排队客流进行预测,并在此基础上应用最小二乘法的非线性拟合的方式对于残差进行预测,最后将灰色理论预测结果与残差预测结果进行整合.通过实例,验证了改进后的灰色理论在公交候车排队客流预测方面的有效性和可行性,并且取得了比较好的预测结果.According to the investigation and analysis of passenger waiting queue in the bus station,a research method based on the grey system theory was employed to predict passenger waiting queues with the characteristics of cyclical fluctuations about passenger waiting queues. A nonlinear curve fitting approach based on the least square method is proposed to predict the residual. Finally,the grey system theory based prediction and the residual prediction results are integrated. Through an empirical analysis,it was verified that improved grey system theory based method is effective and feasible in predicting passenger waiting queues and produces better prediction results.

关 键 词：公交站 灰色理论 候车排队客流预测 

分 类 号：O226[理学—运筹学与控制论]