北京市交通运输业能源消费量发展需求研究  

Study on the Energy Demand of the Transportation Sector of Beijing

作　　者：胡红[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京节能环保中心,北京100029

出　　处：《道路交通与安全》2016年第1期60-64,共5页Road Traffic & Safety

摘　　要：为北京市交通运输业"十三五"节能目标责任分解和考核提供决策技术支撑,采用线性增长率模型及二次移动平均值修正方法,对北京交通运输业发展趋势进行了特征分析及能源消费总量需求预测.结果显示,到2020年,交通运输业能源消费总量将达到2 163万吨,其中铁路以占比20%的能耗、承担57%的城际交通运输需求量,轨道交通以占比50%的能耗、承担67%的城市公共交通需求量,成为最集约和节能的运输方式;而航空运输以占比69%的能耗,仅承担19%的城际运输需求量,成为能源消费成本最高的交通方式.结合新时期北京发展实际,提出了相关政策建议.In order to technically support the transportation sector meeting the energy saving target of the 13^Th Five-Year Plan,a feature analysis on the development tendency of the transportation sector was carried out. Based on the linear growth rate model which is adjusted by the second moving average algorithm,the total energy consumption of the transportation sector was forecasted. Results show that by 2020,the total energy consumption of the transportation sector will reach 21.63 million tce. At that time,the railway transport will bear 57% of the inter-city transportation demand by consuming 20% of the energy,and the inner-city rail transit will bear 67% of the city public transportation demand by consuming 50% of the energy,thus the two transport modes will become the most intensive and energy saving modes of transport. The air transport will only bear 19% of the inter-city transportation demand by consuming 69% of the energy. It will act the highest energy cost mode of transportation. According to the actual development of Beijing in the new period,some policy suggestions were put forward.

关 键 词：交通运输 能源消费总量 结构调整 

分 类 号：U1[交通运输工程]