移民网络与企业出口边界动态演变  

Migrant Networks and Dynamic Evolution of Firm's Export Margins

作　　者：杨汝岱[1] 李艳[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,邮政编码100871 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,邮政编码100084

出　　处：《经济研究》2016年第3期163-175,共13页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA027)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：现代国际贸易理论认为,如果企业能够支付一笔一次性沉没成本,企业的出口关系将持续存在。中国的数据却表明,持续在位关系主导绝大部分出口的同时,不同维度出口关系进入退出频繁,优胜劣汰现象突出。基于此,本文从移民网络角度研究企业出口边界动态演变问题。研究发现,移民网络能够明显降低出口目的市场的不确定性,服务于企业的出口"试错"机制,从而显著提高在位出口关系出口额的增长率(集约边界),提高新进入出口关系的存活率(扩展边界)。进一步,不同角度的异质性检验均符合预期,且对于不同的检验方法和变量定义均稳健。本研究扩展了现代国际贸易理论"确定性世界"的基本假设,也有利于从微观出口动态层面更为深入地理解中国贸易发展。Modern theory of international trade （Melitz, 2003 ） predicts a stable export activity once comparative advantage justifies it or once the sunk cost of such an activity is paid for. Therefore, using Chinese firm-transaction level export data, we study the dynamic evolution of firm＇s export margin from the perspective of migration. We find that migrant networks significantly reduce the uncertainty in export markets, which can greatly improve the growth rate of export value at the intensive margin and the survival rate of new activities at the extensive margin. Moreover, the influence is higher for differentiated products than for homogenous ones, greater for private enterprises than for state-owned ones, and larger for enterprises in South China than in East China. The results are robust and in line with theoretical predictions. This paper has high documentary value by expanding the basic assumption named deterministic world of the international trade theory, and is helpful for further understanding of China＇s trade growth.

关 键 词：移民网络 不确定性 出口边界 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]