基于事故风险源的城市环境风险分区研究——以南京市为例  

ZONING OF URBAN ENVIRONMENT RISK BASED ON ACCIDENT RISK SOURCES——A CASE STUDY OF NANJING

作　　者：王肖惠[1,2] 陈爽[1] 秦海旭[3] 管蓓[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏南京210008 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]南京市环境保护科学研究院,江苏南京210013

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2016年第3期453-461,共9页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41371179);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-EW-315)~~

摘　　要：以事故风险个案评价原理为基础,从风险受体角度出发,研究城市内部风险源最大可信事故发生时的最大影响半径,针对不同类型风险源的影响半径做空间分析得到区域风险等级,并结合自然和城市敏感区数据分析得到综合的事故风险分区结果。以南京市为研究对象,从城市内部多类型风险源的影响范围和程度入手,采用风险制图法评价城市事故风险,对本市数百家危化品单位、危废单位、涉重单位、高压走廊及天然气高压管道等涉及的风险源布局和影响半径进行分析,综合南京市城市用地布局及市域城镇体系规划提出防范措施与优化建议,其分区结果对未来南京市城市总体规划、土地利用规划中的安全规划、布局选址及工业结构调整升级等有直接的现实意义和指导意义。On the basis of the individual risk assessment, in this paper we study the maximum influence radius from the perspective of risk receptor when the accident of the urban internal risk source happened with the maximum likelihood.According to the spatial analysis of different types of risk source radii, the urban environmental risk zoning results were obtained through the comprehensive evaluation. We chose Nanjing as the research object. From the scope and degree of multi-type risk source inside the city, we analyzed the influence factors and radius in accident risk assessment including hundreds of hazardous chemical, hazardous waste, heavy metal pollution, high voltage corridor and natural gas highpressure pipeline, using the risk cartography to evaluate the urban accident risk. Considering the layout and city system we proposed the prevention measures and optimization suggestions. From the perspective of risk target we put forward the evaluation method and optimization recommendations. Our study will be important for the urban master planning, industry development planning and land use planning in the future of Nanjing city.

关 键 词：城市事故风险 风险评价 风险分区 叠加分析 

分 类 号：X820[环境科学与工程—环境工程]