云南省1958～2013年极端气温时空变化特征分析  

SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME AIR TEMPERATURE IN YUNNAN PROVINCE DURING 1958-2013

作　　者：杨晓静[1] 徐宗学[1,2] 左德鹏[1,2] 赵焕[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]全球变化协同研究中心,北京100875

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2016年第3期523-536,共14页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询项目“我国旱涝事件集合应对战略研究”(2012-ZD–13)~~

摘　　要：利用云南省1958~2013年28个气象站点逐日最高气温、最低气温数据,计算10个极端气温指数。基于MannKendall（M-K）方法分析极端气温指数年代/际、季节变化趋势,并利用反距离权重法探讨极端气温空间分布特征。为进一步明确未来各极端气温指数年/季节可能存在的变化趋势,利用R/S分析方法,估算极端气温指数的Hurst指数。分析结果表明：（1）时间上,极端高温事件发生频率及持续时间均显著大于低温事件,而最低气温增温幅度高于最高气温。且年/季节最高气温与最低气温均在1980年代后呈现更为显著的增温趋势,四季中冬季最高、最低温度增温幅度均最大;（2）空间上,极端高温事件高发地区为滇西南与滇中地区,而极端低温事件高发地区为滇西北及滇东北地区;（3）全省未来最高气温（TMAX）与最低气温均呈增加趋势,且TMIN增加趋势持续性更为明显,增温趋势持续性最强的地区为：昆明、景洪、腾冲、香格里拉及昭通TMIN。In order to investigate changes of extreme air temperature in Yunnan Province, southwestern China, 10 extreme indices were employed. Those indices were estimated based on observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature at28 meteorological stations from 1958 to 2013. The tendency of those indices was detected by using the Mann–Kendal test method. In addition, the inverse distance weight method was used to analyze the spatial distribution of those annual and seasonal indices. Then, the changes of annual and seasonal extreme air temperature indices in the future were estimated by using the R/S method. The results showed that the frequency and duration of extreme high-temperature events were obviously higher than those of extreme low-temperature events while the increasing range of the minimum air temperature was comparatively greater than that of maximum air temperature. The annual and seasonal results of extreme air temperature presented a significantly upward trend, especially after the 1980 s. Both extreme maximum and minimum air temperature in winter presented more remarkably increasing range comparing with those in other seasons; Southwestern and central region of Yunnan Province showed higher frequency and duration of extreme high temperature events than other regions. Meanwhile, the higher frequency and duration of extreme low temperature events was detected in northwestern and northeastern regions. High and low temperatures show a consistently increasing trend all over Yunnan Province in the future despite the persistence of the tendency shows diversity of spatial distribution. The persistently increasing of minimum air temperature is more obvious than maximum air temperature at annual and seasonal scales. It was noted that the most continuous increasing trend of air temperature were detected in Kunming, Jinghong, Tengchong,Shangri-La and Zhaotong cities.

关 键 词：极端气温 趋势 分布 云南 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]