基于扩散指数模型的长沙房地产景气循环研究  

Real Estate Business Cycle in Changsha Based on Diffusion Index Model

作　　者：王文萱[1] 龙浪 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学工学院,湖南长沙410128 [2]湖南农业大学东方科技学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2016年第1期136-141,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

摘　　要：为实现长沙房地产业持续健康发展,按照景气循环原理,收集长沙市2002~2014年房地产市场各项指标数据,建立房地产景气循环评价指标体系。基于扩散指数模型,利用时间序列法测定各指标循环波动值,对长沙市房地产市场先行、同步、滞后景气扩散指数进行综合测度并绘制房地产市场景气循环走势图。根据同步扩散指数曲线与历史数据分析长沙市2002~2014年房地产市场运行轨迹,运用先行扩散指数和滞后扩散指数曲线分别对长沙市房地产市场景气情况进行预测和验证。应用该模型能够有效判断长沙房地产景气循环转折点并进行短期未来发展趋势预测,更好地实现房地产市场景气监测,为政府、消费者和房地产开发商三方投资决策提供参考。To achieve sustained and healthy development of the real estate industry in Changsha,in accordance with the principle of business cycle,real estate market indicators in Changsha are collected from 2002 to 2014 and a real estate business cycle evaluation index system is established. Based on the diffusion index model,time series method is used to determine the cyclical fluctuation value of all index. The leading diffusion index, coincident diffusion index and lagging diffusion index were synthetically measured and the curve of the business cycle of estate market was drawn. According to the analysis of coincident diffusion index curve and historical data,real estate market running track of Changsha is drawn from 2002 to 2014. The real estate market in Changsha is predicted and verified respectively by the curve of the leading diffusion index and the lagging diffusion index. Application of the model can effectively determine the real estate business cycle turning point and forecast the future shot-term development trend in Changsha. The results can be helpful for decision-makings of government agency,consumers and real estate developers.

关 键 词：房地产市场 景气循环 扩散指数 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]