京津冀经济发展的空间溢出效应——基于动态空间计量的实证研究  

The Spatial Spillover Effect of Economic Development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：周文通[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院

出　　处：《中国社会科学院研究生院学报》2016年第2期45-52,共8页Journal of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

摘　　要：本文基于动态空间计量方法和京津冀区县经济数据,探讨京津冀区域经济面临的空间溢出效应,结果表明：（1）就现状而言,2008~2012年京津冀各区县本地经济积累、投资活动和公共服务显著地促进本地经济发展;本地经济积累还能促进周边地区经济发展,但本地投资和公共服务则抑制周边地区经济发展。（2）就未来趋势而言,本地经济主要靠本地投资活动和公共支出拉动;而本地投资活动和公共支出对周边经济的＂阴影效应＂和＂竞争效应＂仍然存在。This paper calculates and analyses the spatial spillover which influences regional economy of BTH region.The results show：（1） from 2008 to 2012,the local economic accumulation,investment activity,and public service provision of counties and divisions in BTH region strengthen the development of local economy;the local economic accumulation has positive spatial effect on the economic development of the surrounding area;the local investment activities and public service provision have negative effect on the surrounding area.（2） In the next 5 years,the local investment activities and public service provision will play a leading role in local economy development;for surrounding economies,however,the local investment activities and public service provision will play a negative role.

关 键 词：区域经济 空间溢出 动态空间面板 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]