黑钙土区50年来气候生产潜力变化分析  

Analysis on the changes of climate potential productivity over the past 50 years in chernozem soil area

作　　者：靳英华[1] 许嘉巍[1] 朱孟美[1] 肖晗[1] 姜锡东[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林长春130024 [2]东北师范大学自然博物馆,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《东北师大学报（自然科学版）》2016年第1期121-127,共7页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41571078;41171072;41101523);中国地震局资助项目(201208005)

摘　　要：选用东北黑钙土区的白城、乾安、前郭、通榆、长岭、富裕、齐齐哈尔、泰来8个气象台站的数据,分析了其50年来生长季平均气温、降水量和干燥度的变化趋势.采用Miami模型分别计算了由气温和降水决定的生产潜力;采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了由气温、降水、干燥度综合作用决定的生产潜力,分析了其变化趋势,并通过Mann-Kendall检验进行了突变分析.结果表明:(1)黑钙土区1961—2010年生长季增温明显,降水量略有下降,干燥度显著升高,区域气候已由半湿润转化为半干旱;50年中的后20年比前30年的气候倾向率大.(2)黑钙土区由平均气温决定的温度生产潜力增加趋势明显,由降水量决定的降水生产潜力减少趋势变化不明显,由气温、降水、干燥度共同影响的气候生产潜力呈现不显著的下降趋势.(3)气候生产潜力变化在区域内存在差异,处于较低纬度吉林西部的各站点变化速率显著大于处于较高纬度的黑龙江西部的各站点.(4)黑钙土区近50年农业气候生产潜力已发生变化,建议通过改变耕作方式和调整土地利用结构,使我国黑钙土区的农业生产适应气候的变化.This study analyzes the change trends in mean temperature,precipitation and aridity in the growing season in the last 50 years using the meteorological data of eight stations（Baicheng,Qianan,Qianguo,Tongyu,Changling,Fuyu,Qiqihar,and Tailai）.In addition,temperature potential productivity and precipitation potential productivity are calculated using the Miami model.Climate potential productivity is calculated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model.Change trend and mutation of the potential productivity are performed by Mann-Kendall test.The results show that：（1）Temperature has increased significantly,but precipitation has decreased slightly.So the aridity has significantly increased.Regional climate has transformed from semi-humid into semi-arid.The climate trend rate in last 20 years is bigger than that in previous 30 years.（2）The temperature potential productivity increases significantly but precipitation potential productivity decreases slightly.The climate potential productivity decided by temperature,precipitation and aridity decreases insignificantly.（3）The change patterns of climate potential productivity are different in the study area.The trend in western Jilin（low latitudes）is bigger than that in western Heilongjiang（high latitudes）.（4）Climate potential productivity has changed a lot in chernozem soil area over the past50 years,so advise to adjust the farming methods and land use structure to make sure the agriculture can adapt to climate change.

关 键 词：黑钙土区 气候变化 气候生产潜力 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]