京沪汉地区墙面月平均太阳总辐射的预测模型对比  

Comparison of the monthly-average solar radiation models on vertical surface in the Beijing,Shanghai and Wuhan

作　　者：李芬[1] 胡超[1] 马年骏[1] 陈正洪 吕文华[3] 杨兴武[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海电力学院电气工程学院,上海200090 [2]湖北省气象服务中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国气象局大气探测中心,北京100081

出　　处：《可再生能源》2016年第3期324-331,共8页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(51307105);上海市高校青年教师培养资助计划项目(ZZsdl13016);上海绿色能源并网工程技术研究中心项目(13DZ2251900)

摘　　要：利用北京、上海、武汉3地的水平面太阳辐射观测值,根据4种斜面辐射模型计算出不同朝向垂直墙面上的辐射预测值。通过分析比较得出:在预测精度要求不高的情况下,4种模型均适用于3地垂直墙面辐射预测;斜面辐射模型预测的结果受纬度影响。依据总云量、降水及能见度数据区分出不同天气类型,用北京地区垂直墙面的辐射观测值对4种模型进行了误差校验。结合天气类型、总云量和PM2.5数据的误差分析结果表明:晴天条件下同性模型的预测精度低,各向异性模型的预测精度高;Liu同性模型更适合用于预测北京地区垂直墙面的总辐射;由于北京地区空气质量差而导致各向异性模型的预测结果趋向于各向同性模型的预测结果。Based on the measured solar radiation on horizontal surface in Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan, the predicted values of different orientations are calculated by 4 empirical approaches for estimating the total radiation on vertical surface. Four models are able to predict the total solar radiation on vertical surfaces in Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan under the condition of low prediction accuracy. The geographic latitude and meteorological environmental factors affect the prediction accuracy. According to total cloud cover, precipitation and visibility, the different weather types are classified. Then, the observation of total solar radiation on vertical surface in Beijing is used to test the predictions of 4 models. Combing with the total cloud cover, PM2.5, and weather types for error analysis, the results show that： The prediction accuracy of the isotropic model is lower than that of the anisotropic models under clear skies; Liu model performs better than anisotropic models for predicting the total radiation on vertical surface in Beijing, presumably due to the severe air pollution which makes the diffuse radiation almost isotropic.

关 键 词：垂直墙面 太阳辐射 天气类型 PM2.5 总云量 

分 类 号：TK519[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程] P422.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]