基于灰色新陈代谢马尔科夫模型对跑道侵入事件的分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Runway Incursion Events Based on Grey Metabolism Markov Model

作　　者：刘军凯[1] 崔振新[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《综合运输》2016年第3期62-65,共4页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：本文综合运用灰色预测和马尔科夫两种方法,建立了我国机场跑道侵入的灰色新陈代谢马尔科夫预测模型。新陈代谢用来克服旧数据失去时效性的不足,马克科夫可以解决现有数据波动较大的问题,揭示了我国民航跑道侵入事件的动态变化规律并对我国民航跑道侵入事件的发生次数进行了较为准确的预测。为我国民航部门制定相关事件防范计划、降低跑道侵入的危害以及改善民航安全提供了依据,此方法也可以用于其他典型不安全事件类型的预测。Integrated use of Grey prediction and Markov method, set up an Grey Metabolism Markov prediction model for airport runway incursion of China.Using metabolism to overcome the deficiency of the old data timeliness, and using the Markov solved the problem of the existing volatility data, reveals the dynamic change law of our country civil aviation runway intrusion events and predicts the number of runway intrusion events of China＇s civil aviation. Providing the basis for China＇s civil aviation departments to formulate preparedness plans of relevant event, reduce the harm of runway intrusion and improve civil aviation safety. This method also can be used for predicting other typical unsafe event.

关 键 词：灰色预测 新陈代谢 马尔科夫 跑道侵入 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]