巨灾保险市场的均衡影响因素分析——基于演化博弈模型的研究  

Analyzing the Factors Effecting Catastrophe Insurance Market Equilibrium:Based on Evolutionary Game Model

作　　者：孙武军[1] 孙涵[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2016年第2期99-111,共13页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(12BJY150);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD)的资助

摘　　要：本文通过建立消费者和保险公司以及政府三者之间的演化博弈模型,进行动态系统稳定性分析来寻找巨灾保险市场均衡,并进一步通过比较静态分析来研究巨灾保险市场均衡的影响因素。结果发现,消费者巨灾保险投保意愿与消费者通过投保得到巨灾保障以外的正外部性、不投保情况下所需多付出的防灾减灾成本正相关,与消费者不能顺利投保发生的额外成本负相关;保险公司经营巨灾保险意愿与保险公司不经营巨灾保险而失去的潜在消费者带来的收益、巨灾保险品牌植入效应带来的正外部性、巨灾保险基金的预期收益正相关,与不投保巨灾保险的消费者获得的正溢出效应负相关;政府减少灾后救助、增加对消费者的保费补贴以及灾后承担更多保险赔偿责任,对达成巨灾保险市场均衡有着正向激励作用。This paper establishes the evolutionary game model and conducts stability analysis of the dynamic system to find the catastrophe insurance market equilibrium and study the factors effecting the catastrophe insurance market equilibrium. As a result, the willingness of consumers to cover catastrophe insurance is positively related to the positive externalities besides ca- tastrophe coverage obtained by consumers who choose to insure, as well as the added disaster prevention and mitigation costs without catastrophe insurance. However, the willingness above has negative correlation with additional costs occurred when con- sumers can＇t get insurance successfully ; The willingness of insurance companies to engage in catastrophe insurance is positively related to the missing benefit from the potential customers without operating catastrophe insurance, the positive externalities brought by brand placement effect of catastrophe insurance and the expected return on catastrophe insurance funds. The more spillover effects are obtained by consumers without catastrophe insurance coverage, the less willingness insurance companies will have to provide catastrophe insurance products; By reducing post-disaster salvation, increasing premium subsidies to consumers, as well as undertaking more liability for insurance compensation, the government can promote catastrophe insurance market equilibrium.

关 键 词：巨灾保险 演化博弈 比较静态分析 

分 类 号：F842.64[经济管理—保险]