基于实物期权的垃圾焚烧发电CCER项目投资价值评估研究  

Research on the Investment Valuation of the CCER Project for Waste-to-Power Based on the Real Option Model

作　　者：代春艳[1] 周艳玲 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学管理学院,重庆400067 [2]重庆市企业管理研究中心,重庆400067

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第4期123-127,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区项目"基于全生命周期的垃圾发电协同效益分析"(13XJC630003);重庆市企业管理研究中心开放基金项目"基于实物期权的垃圾焚烧发电CCER项目投资决策研究"(610315001)

摘　　要：垃圾焚烧发电中国自愿减排(CCER)项目具有投资不可逆性、收益不确定性和投资成长性等特点,传统的折现现金流法(DCF)已不适用于此类项目的投资价值评估。研究充分衡量了由CCER交易价格的不确定性给项目带来的额外收益,并重点考虑了CCER交易价格波动率对期权价值的影响,利用B-S定价模型理论,构建了基于实物期权的垃圾焚烧发电CCER项目投资价值评估模型。通过某垃圾焚烧项目的实际运用,检验模型的有效性和合理性,以期为企业的投资决策提供参考,推动中国自愿减排机制健康有序发展。The Chinese certified emission reduction project for waste-to-power has the characteristics of investment irreversibility, earnings uncertainty and investment growth. Due to those characteristics, the traditional discounted cash flow（DCF） method is no longer suitable for the investment evaluation of such projects. This research fully measures the additional benefits that brought by the uncertainty of CCER transaction price, especially considers the impact of CCER transaction price volatility on the option value, and then by using the B-S pricing model theory, builds an investment value evaluation model of CCER project for waste-to-power which is based on real option. Making a waste-to-power project into application, this paper tests the validity and rationality of the model, so as to provide a reference for enterprise investment decision and promote the healthy and orderly development of CCER mechanism.

关 键 词：实物期权模型 垃圾焚烧发电 中国自愿减排 投资决策 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]