综合承载力视角下新疆适度人口研究  

Optimum Population Studies in Xinjiang under the Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Perspective

作　　者：张庆红[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学统计与信息学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第4期199-202,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"新疆益贫式增长测度及影响因素研究"(71363050);教育部人文社会科学基金项目"新疆多维益贫式增长判断及路径选择"(13XJJC790001);新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划项目"基于综合承载力的新疆适度人口研究"(201342121)

摘　　要：新疆现实人口规模增长较快,这与社会经济发展的要求和自然环境承载能力产生了一定背离。文章基于综合承载力构建适度人口模型测算了新疆2000~2013年的适度人口。结果表明：新疆人均生态赤字较高,人地矛盾相对较小,目前的人口规模基本合理,从维护经济、资源和生态环境协调稳定的角度来看,新疆已经没有人口增长的空间。今后需要合理控制人口增长,改变生产和消费模式,注重生态保护,合理利用资源,以提高适度人口规模容载能力。There is a certain deviation among the population scale and development of social economy and carrying capacity of natural environment in Xinjiang because of the rapidly growth of population. The paper calculates optimum population in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2013 based on the comprehensive carrying capacity. The result shows that ecological deficit per capita is high in Xinjiang, the contradiction between human and land is relatively small, the present population size is roughly reasonable, and there is no room for population growth from the perspective of maintaining coordination and stability among economic, resource and ecological environment. So population growth control in the future is needed, the production and consumption patterns need to be changed, ecological protection and rational utilization of resources are necessary in order to improve the capacity of optimum population.

关 键 词：综合承载力 适度人口 可持续发展 新疆 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] F062.2