贵德县梨树始花期与气象因子的相关分析及预报模型  

Correlation Analysis and Forecasting Model of Beginning of Flowering Period of Pear Tree and Meteorological Factors

作　　者：郭连云[1] 赵年武[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海省海南州气象局,青海共和813099

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2016年第7期147-151,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

摘　　要：为准确预报贵德地区梨树的始花期提供方法支持。笔者利用2007—2014年青海省贵德县气象局观测的梨树始花期资料和地面气象观测资料,对影响梨树始花期的气象因子进行分析。结果表明:影响梨树始花期的主要气象因子是气温稳定通过5.0℃到3月底的积温值。利用逐步回归分析方法建立了基于主要气象因子的梨树始花期预报模型,用所建立的预测模型对2007—2014年梨花始花期进行回测,准确率较高。对2015年梨树始花期日期进行预测,预测值与实际观测值之间相差1天,预报值基本吻合。所建立的预测模型能准确预测贵德县梨树始花期的预报。The paper aims to supply a method for accurately predicting the beginning of flowering period ofpear in Guide Area. By using ground meteorological observation data and data of the beginning of floweringperiod of peal tree in Guide Meteorological Bureau during 2007-2014, the meteorological factors influencingthe beginning of flowering period of peal tree were analyzed. The results showed that： the key factor affectingthe beginning of flowering period of pear tree was the accumulated temperature of the temperature stability by5℃ to the end of March. The prediction model of the beginning of flowering period of local pear tree wasestablished by stepwise regression analysis method based on the principal meteorological factors. Using theestablished prediction model to back predict the beginning of flowering of pear tree in 2007- 2014, theaccuracy was relatively high. By forecasting the data of the beginning of flowering of pear tree in 2015, therewas only one day between the predicted value and the measured value, the measured value basically agreedwell with the predicted value. The prediction model established in the study could accurately forecast thebeginning of flowering of pear tree in Guide Area.

关 键 词：梨树 始花期 影响因子 预报模型 相关分析 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]