基于改进AHP的地下矿突水风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Underground Mine Water Inrush Based on Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：阮竹恩[1,2] 李翠平[1,2] 李仲学[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2016年第3期47-50,95,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51174260;51174032);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-10-0225);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(FRF-TP-09-001A)

摘　　要：地下矿突水风险的有效评价是矿井水害防治与安全开采的基本前提与重要基础。为了科学有效地评价地下矿突水事故风险,在深入研究分析与归纳地下矿突水因素的基础上,构建了较为全面的矿井突水事故风险评价指标体系,体系包括7个一级指标,各一级指标有与之对应的二级指标。应用德尔菲法对各项指标进行统一打分并求平均值,对层次分析法进行改进并应用于确定各项指标的权重,然后根据风险评价模型计算出评价结果。最后,结合国内某典型矿山进行实际的应用,所得结果与实际情况一致性较好,说明该方法可以提高矿井突水风险评价的有效性与准确性,具有较好的可行性。Effective evaluation of the risk of underground mine water inrush is the prerequisite and basis for mine water hazard control and safety mining. In order to carry out scientific and rational risk evaluation on mine water inrush,a reasonable mine water inrush risk evaluation system is set up in the paper,based on analysis and synthesis of the factors of mine water inrush risk,which includes seven A indexes and each A index has corresponding B index. Then each factor is scored by Delphi method and the average score of each factor has also got. Analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） is improved and applied to determine the weight of each factor and the evaluation result is obtained based on the risk assessment model proposed in the paper. Finally,through the case of a typical domestic mine,it is found that the studied result agrees with the practical one,indicating that this method can improve the accuracy and availability of risk assessment of mine water inrush and it is feasible.

关 键 词：矿井突水 风险评价 改进层次分析法 指标体系 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]