从资源到资本:中国奶业区域格局演化成因分析  

From resources to capital: The cause analysis of the regional structure change in China's dairy industry

作　　者：道日娜[1] 罗燕芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010021

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2016年第2期205-213,共9页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71563036;71463040);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2014MS0702)~~

摘　　要：伴随奶业产业化和生产要素流动,中国奶业区域格局正在从资源富集区域向资本富集区域演化。纵观中国奶业过去20 a发展历史进程,总结了奶业区域格局演化的时空特征。在此基础上,从经济地理和新经济地理学结合的视角,构建"资源—资本—市场—政策"的四维理论分析框架,利用2002—2012年省级面板数据研究了奶业区域格局演化的成因。研究结果表明:1)中国奶业区域格局演化呈东北、西北、大城市以及南方奶业比重明显下降而华北奶业大幅递增的时空特征;2)资源因素中的大豆产量以及资本因素中的乳品企业年产值促进区域奶牛存栏增长;3)奶业优势区域政策推动区域奶牛存栏递增;4)资本因素中的奶牛单产水平的提升,减少区域奶牛存栏量;5)区域乳制品消费和奶牛存栏滞后变量对奶业区域格局演化影响并不显著。In the context of industrialization and the flow of productive factors, China＇s dairy industry is undergoing a significant regional structural change from resource-intensive regions to capital-intensive regions. By reviewing China＇s dairy industry development history over the past two decades, this paper summarizes the temporal and spatial evolutions of the regional distribution in China＇s dairy industry. Applying the theories of both economic geography and new economic geography, this paper also constructs a four-dimensional conceptual framework, including resources, capital, market potential, and policy factors, to examine the impact of the above four factors upon the spatial allocation of milk production in China using a state-level panel data from 2002 to 2012. Results indicate that： 1） the dairy industry shares in the Northeast, Northwest, Metropolitan areas was decreasing and the dairy industry shares in the South China were increasing; 2） the output values of dairy enterprises and the state-level soybean output have positive impacts on the growth of regional dairy cow inventories; 3） dairy superior region＇s policy favored the increase of dairy cow inventories; 4） the per cow productivity, however, has negative influence on region＇s dairy cow inventories; and 5） statelevel consumption of dairy products and the lag of cow inventory show insignificant influences on the specialization of milk production in regions.

关 键 词：奶业区域格局 时空特征 资源 资本 市场 奶业优势区域政策 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]