风电轴承性能退化建模及其实时剩余寿命预测  

Performance Degradation Model and Prediction Method of Real-time Remaining Life for Wind Turbine Bearings

作　　者：胡姚刚[1] 李辉[1] 廖兴林[1] 宋二兵[1] 欧阳海黎 刘志祥 

机构地区：[1]输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆市沙坪坝区400044 [2]中船重工(重庆)海装风电设备有限公司,重庆市渝北区400021 [3]重庆科凯前卫风电设备有限责任公司,重庆市渝北区401121

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2016年第6期1643-1649,共7页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国际科技合作专项资助(2013DFG61520);国家自然科学基金项目(51377184);重庆市重点产业共性关键技术创新专项(cstc2015zdcy-ztzx0212);重庆市研究生科研创新项目资助(CYB14014)~~

摘　　要：为了实时掌握风电轴承的剩余寿命,提出一种基于温度特征量的风电轴承性能退化建模及其实时剩余寿命预测方法。由于风速大小和风向的不确定性,使风电轴承温度在较宽的范围波动,采用移动平均法对风电轴承的相对温度数据平滑滤波处理,提取风电轴承性能退化的温度趋势量;考虑风电轴承在运行过程常受到不确定因素影响,使其性能退化速度随时间而改变,基于Wiener过程建立了风电轴承的性能退化模型,并提出基于极大似然估计的实时参数估计方法;以温度监测值首次超过失效阈值判定轴承失效原则,建立了基于逆高斯分布的风电轴承实时剩余寿命预测模型;最后,应用文中所提出的方法,对实际某风电机组的发电机后轴承性能退化过程分析及其剩余寿命进行预测,并与实际剩余寿命进行了对比和分析,表明文中提出的风电轴承性能退化模型及实时剩余寿命预测方法是正确有效的。In order to know about the remaining life of wind turbine bearings, the performance degradation model and real-time remaining life prediction method of wind turbine bearings were proposed based on temperature characteristic parameters. Firstly, because the uncertainty of wind speed and wind direction results in the temperature of wind turbine bearings in a wide range, by using the method of the moving average method, the relative temperature data of wind turbine bearings were smoothed, and the temperature trend data of wind turbine bearings were obtained. Secondly, considering the degradation speed of bearings change with the operational time and external uncertain factors, the performance degradation model was established based on the Wiener process, and the parameters of performance degradation model were obtained by using the method of maximum likelihood estimation. Thirdly, according to the failure principle of the first temperature monitoring value beyond the warning threshold, the remaining life prediction model of wind turbine bearings was established based on the inverse Gaussian distribution. Finally, taken as an example of the remaining life prediction of a practical generator rear bearing, the process of performance degradation and real-time remaining life prediction were demonstrated. By comparison with the practical remaining life,results show that the proposed model and prediction method is correct and effective.

关 键 词：风电轴承 性能退化 WIENER过程 寿命预测 

分 类 号：TM315[电气工程—电机] TM614