我国货币政策中介目标的选择与再检验  

The Choice and Re-examination of the Intermediate Target of Monetary Policy in China

作　　者：潘艳艳[1] 赵昕[1] 高璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2016年第3期36-40,共5页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：国家海洋局软科学项目"蓝色金融发展对策研究(B201303011)"

摘　　要：本文利用普尔规划分析选取1996—2014年的相关季度数据,对我国货币政策中介目标的选取进行实证分析。普尔规划分析结果表明,货币市场的冲击方差远小于产品市场,即宏观经济冲击依旧主要来源于产品市场,这意味着目前我国的货币政策中介目标应确定为以货币供应量为代表的数量型指标。随后的协整检验亦证明了这一结论的合理性。This paper analyses the selection of the intermediate target of monetary policy in China empirically with related quarterly data from 1996 to 2014. The results show that＇the impact of the currency market is far less than that of the product market, that is, the macroeconomic impact is still mainly from the product market, which means that the current monetary policy intermediate target should be determined as the quantity target which is represented by the mon- ey supply. The rationality of this conclusion is also verified by the subsequent co-integration test.

关 键 词：货币政策 中介目标 普尔分析 协整 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]