智能用电技术路线图规划与技术评估跟踪管理  

Roadmap planning and technology evaluation methods for smart power consumption technologies

作　　者：沈瑜[1] 岳园园[1] 张一戈 袁静伟[2] 石怀德[2] 郭炳庆[2] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室,清华大学电机系,北京100084 [2]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192

出　　处：《电工电能新技术》2016年第3期54-61,共8页Advanced Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy

基　　金：国家电网公司总部科技项目“智能用电技术发展路线图”(EPRIYDKJ(2015)2066)

摘　　要：智能用电是我国智能电网建设的关键环节之一,近年来得到了广泛的理论研究与实践探索。智能用电相关技术涉及多个学科领域,技术方向繁多,甄别出需要重点关注及追踪发展的技术具有重要意义。本文研究智能用电技术路线图规划与技术评估跟踪管理方法,在构建智能用电技术储备库的基础上,基于技术生命周期理论及引文分析法对技术储备库中的技术进行综合评估,进而分析相关技术的发展趋势,识别关键使能技术,从而绘制智能用电技术发展路线图,并给出智能用电技术管理的若干建议。The theoretical research and practical exploration of smart power consumption has become one of the hot issues in recent years. Smart power consumption is a multidisciplinary research field. Hence,it is of great signifi-cance to choose the key technologies which need to be tracked and followed up. Methods of roadmap planning and technology evaluation of smart power consumption are studied. An evaluation model is developed based on computer-aided bibliometric analysis method in this paper. A database of potential technologies is set up firstly. Based on the assessment index set,the key database of technologies is formed. Then,life cycle theory and S-curve model are applied to evaluate each technology and analyze the developing phase,pattern and trend. Citation analysis theory is applied to uncover the temporal sequence association of various technologies and identify key pilot technologies.Lastly,the roadmap of smart power consumption technologies is put forward and the opportunities and challenges of smart power consumption industry are discussed.

关 键 词：智能用电 技术发展路线图 生命周期理论 引文分析法 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]