湖北省农村剩余劳动力数量模型研究  

Quantitative Model Research of Rural Surplus Labor in Hubei Province

作　　者：王凡成[1] 邵书慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济学院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2016年第4期1084-1088,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：荆州智库项目(JZSK-YK1529)

摘　　要：农业生产率的提高是农村经济发展的重要指标,但是农业生产率的提高必定会导致农村剩余劳动力的增加,长远将抑制宏观经济的协调发展,为了避免这一现象的出现,必须寻找其他产业吸纳农村剩余劳动力和农业生产率提高的平衡点。研究结合拉尼斯-费景汉二元经济结构下的人口流动模型,先定义了农村剩余劳动力的数量和均等收入下土地适度规模经营的评价标准,再以劳动力转移量作为土地规模经营的影响因子,通过对湖北省农村剩余劳动力转移的实证分析确定实现城乡均等收入的土地规模经营所需劳动力,并测算出湖北省目前需要转移的农村劳动力数量,以此为湖北省政府及国家宏观经济层面提供相关政策建议。The increase of agricultural productivity is an important index of rural economic development, but the increase of agricultural productivity is bound to lead to the increase of rural surplus labor, in the long run, which will inhibit the coordinated development of macro economy. In order to avoid the occurrence of this phenomenon, it must look for the balance between other industries＇ absorbing rural surplus labor and increasing agricultural productivity. Combined with the Ranis-Fei population flow model under the dual economic structure, the number of rural surplus labor and the moderate scale management of land on equal income evaluation standard were first defined, and then using the number of labor migration as factors influencing land scale operation, an empirical analysis was conducted based on rural surplus labor transfer in Hubei province to determine the number of required labor in land scale management for implementing equality income of urban and rural,and to measure how many rural labor forces required to transfer now in Hubei province, on this account, some relevant political proposals were put forward from the angle of government and national macro economy in Hubei province.

关 键 词：农村剩余劳动力 土地适度规模经营 数量模型 二元经济结构 

分 类 号：F304.6[经济管理—产业经济]