基于IPAT方程的粮食生产与水资源投入量的脱钩分析——以我国13个粮食主产省(区)为例  

Analysis of Decoupling Relationship of Total Grain Output and Water Input Based on IPAT Equation——Taking 13 Major Grain Producing Area in China as an Example

作　　者：栾健[1] 周玉玺[1] 李明辉[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院/三农问题研究中心,山东泰安271018 [2]山东省农业科学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2016年第4期430-436,共7页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目(编号:11YJA630217);山东农业大学现代农业发展研究院项目(编号:14XSK2-02);山东省"三农"问题软科学研究基地项目;山东省农业应用技术创新重大项目"山东省粮食产能增长与创新管理研究";"山东省农业现代化与农业经济管理协调发展创新综合研究"

摘　　要：利用脱钩理论,从时空维度对我国粮食总产量和水资源投入量的脱钩关系进行测算分析。结果表明:1我国粮食主产省(区)的粮食总产量和水资源投入量均呈增长趋势,两者之间总体表现为弱脱钩关系。2多数省份粮食总产量与水资源投入量呈协同增长趋势,且表现为弱脱钩关系。3具有相同脱钩关系的省份呈地域分布差异:东北地区、黄淮海地区的多数省份处于弱脱钩状态,强脱钩省份多位于华北地区,扩张性复钩在华东地区较常见。4各省份在多数年份中实现了脱钩,但水资源配置与利用能力依然参差不齐。This paper calculated and analyzed the decoupling relationship of total grain output and water input from two dimensions of time and space by using the theory of decoupling. The primary results were as follows： 1Both total grain output and water input showed a trend of increasing. The relationship of total grain output and water input showed a weak decoupling relationship in most years. 2 Total grain output and water input showed a synergistically increasing trend in a large number of provinces which belonged to main grain producing area. The relationship between them showed a weak decoupling in most provinces. 3The provinces which had the same kind of decoupling relationship had regional differences in the distribution of space. Most provinces which belonged to the area of northeast and Huanghuaihai plain had a weak decoupling relationship. Most provinces had a strong decoupling relationship in North China and some provinces had a spreading coupling relationship in East China. 4Most provinces were achieved the decoupling relationship. But ability of allocation and utilization of water resource was still irregular in provinces which were achieved a decoupling relationship.

关 键 词：粮食主产区 水资源 脱钩理论 

分 类 号：F323.213[经济管理—产业经济]