基于脱钩理论的安徽省工业碳排放与经济增长研究  

RESEARCH ON INDUSTRIAL CARBON EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON DECOUPLING THEORY IN ANHUI PROVINCE

作　　者：韩亚芬[1] 张生[1] 张强 

机构地区：[1]安徽省煤矿勘探工程技术研究中心,宿州学院环境与测绘工程学院,安徽宿州234000 [2]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州520275

出　　处：《井冈山大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第2期18-23,共6页Journal of Jinggangshan University (Natural Science)

基　　金：宿州学院安徽省煤矿勘探工程技术研究中心开放课题(2013YKF05);宿州区域发展协同创新中心开放课题(2014SZXTKF15);安徽省教育厅自然科学重点研究项目(KJ2014A251);宿州学院教授博士基金项目(2014JB02)

摘　　要：依据1999～2012年安徽省工业经济与能源消耗的相关数据,利用脱钩理论测算了安徽省工业碳排放与经济增长的脱钩指数,并借助LMDI分解模型对安徽省工业碳排放变化指数进行了分解,结果显示：1999～2012年安徽省工业碳排放与能耗持续增长,且碳排放增加速度明显高于能耗增长速度;1999～2012年安徽省工业碳排放脱钩经历了弱脱钩→扩张复钩（增长连结）→弱脱钩的变化,且能源效率因子对脱钩起促进作用,能源结构因子对脱钩起抑制作用;在碳排放强度变化指数的分解中,能源强度变化是抑制碳排放增加的关键因素,能源结构与工业结构变化对减排效应不明显。该研究旨在为安徽省进一步发展低碳经济、实现工业转型提供理论依据。Based on energy consumption and economic growth data of industries in 1999-2012, we analyze decoupling relationship between carbon emission and industrial economic growth by decoupling theory. Furthermore, the influence of carbon emission was analyzed using the logarithmic mean weight decomposition method（LMDI）. The Results showed as follows. There has been consistent growth in industrial carbon emission and energy consumption from 1999 to 2012. The growth rate of carbon emissions was significantly higher than that of energy consumption. During 1999 to 2012, the decoupling of carbon emission from economic growth has showed changes of the weak decoupling→expansive recovering（growing concatenating） →the weak decoupling. Energy efficiency factor play a catalytic role for decoupling. Compared to energy efficiency factor, energy structure decoupling factor is very weak. We also finds that the decrease of energy consumption intensity is primarily due to cutting emissions as a whole, while the structural effect has not yet emerged in Anhui province. The results may supply theoretical basis for moving to a low carbon development model and transformation of industry.

关 键 词：工业 碳排放 脱钩指数 LMDI 安徽省 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]