央行需审慎货币策略以应对银行风险  

The Central Bank Should be Prudent in Monetary Policy to Deal with Banking Risk

作　　者：顾建光[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院经济政策研究所,教授博士生导师上海200030

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2016年第2期137-142,共6页Reform of Economic System

摘　　要：近两三年来,随着经济进入新常态,结构调整,增速放慢,银行业业绩随之下滑,商业银行不良资产率上升,金融风险显露。论文透析形成这样趋势的深层动因,如:实体经济下行对银行信贷的影响,互联网金融推动银行业界竞争加深,以及利率市场化冲击等。在这样情况下,中国人民银行的货币政策手段也正处于需要调整的阶段,原有的一些政策模式不再适应当下的形势。论文通过对现状透视,借鉴金融危机前后美联储货币政策的经验教训,提出相应的应对策略措施:目前银行存款准备金率仍处于高位,央行应当适当下调存款准备金率,以促进商业银行调整盈利结构;人民银行在制定利率政策时需要特别慎重,除了需要考量GDP增长率、通货膨胀率等因素外,还需要对市场结构性风险进行评估(包括银行业的绩效,汇率影响、资金流动性等);观察货币政策效果时应当有足够的耐心,可以预先通过建模分析货币政策效果的滞后期;需对次级贷款及时监管,避免金融风险扩大和金融危机显现。In resent two to three years, with economy going into the stage of ＂ new normal＂, structure adjustment and slowing economic growth, commercial banking performances slides and banking debts grow up. The article analyzes the situation to find the factors which cause the tendency, such as the impact of real economy slowing down to the bank loans, stronger compe- tition by internet finance and marketization of bank interest. Under the situation, the monitory policy of the Central Bank is at the stage of adjustment, some old policies model is not suitable to the present situation. Based on the analysis, the article gives some strategic measures. Such as, the high commercial bank reserve rate should be cut to a lower position, for promoting the profit making structure of commercial banks. For interest rate policy making, the central bank should pay more cautions, to consider multi indicators and make evaluation for market structure risk, and make stricter supervision to avoid the happen of some financial risk and crisis appearing.

关 键 词：银行业金融风险 审慎货币政策 适当金融监管 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]