基于Nataf逆变换的概率潮流三点估计法  

A Three-Point Estimate Method for Solving Probabilistic Load Flow Based on Inverse Nataf Transformation

作　　者：张立波[1] 程浩忠[1] 曾平良[2] 姚良忠[2] Masoud Bazargan 

机构地区：[1]电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学),上海200240 [2]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192 [3]阿尔斯通电网集团研究与技术中心

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2016年第6期187-194,共8页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(51337005);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2014CB23903)资助

摘　　要：随着风电接入容量的增加,不仅需要考虑大规模风电出力随机性和间歇性对电力系统的影响,还需考虑由不同风电场的风速相关性导致的风电场出力相关性给电力系统带来的影响。利用Nataf变换及逆变换建立多维标准正态空间与多维非正态空间的关系,通过Nataf逆变换可以将独立标准正态空间的采样点转换到相关的非正态变量空间中。通过引入Nataf逆变换,提出可以处理非正态分布随机变量相关性的概率潮流三点估计法。IEEE RTS 24节点系统和IEEE 118节点系统的算例表明算法计算速度快,可以精确地给出输出变量的期望值和标准差。With the increasing penetration of wind sources, not only the fluctuation and intermittency of wind power, but also the correlations among wind farms should be considered in power system analysis. Nataf transformation and inverse Nataf transformation establish the relationship between independent standard normal space and correlated non-normal space. By incorporating inverse Nataf transformation, this paper proposed a novel three-point estimate method to solve the probabilistic load flow problems considering correlations among input variables. Accuracy and efficiency of the proposed algorithm has been validated by the comparative tests in a modified IEEE RTS 24 bus system and a modified IEEE 118 bus system.

关 键 词：概率潮流 Nataf逆变换 相关性 三点估计法 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]