河南省可实现粮食生产潜力研究  

Study on realizable grain production potential in Henan Province

作　　者：朱帅蒙 陈伟强[1] 程道全 赵彦峰[3] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学,河南郑州450002 [2]河南省土壤肥料工作站,河南郑州450002 [3]郑州大学,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2016年第1期115-121,共7页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41201209)

摘　　要：基于GIS技术,采用传统统计学和地统计学相结合的方法,在确定合理试验设计的基础上,通过Kriging插值测算了在试验条件下河南省可实现粮食生产潜力。结果表明,试验区小麦、玉米和水稻产量的空间变异属中等变异性,且服从正态分布,在一定区域范围内表现为强烈的空间相关性;河南省小麦、玉米和水稻在试验条件下,最高单产的平均值分别为7 027.55、8 038.36和8 280.17 kg·hm-2;河南省在现有粮食播种面积及"小麦-玉米"或"小麦-水稻"一年两熟种植制度下,可实现粮食生产潜力达7 598.61万t,与2012年实际粮食产量比较,2012年增产潜力可达1 884.92万t,增产幅度达到32.99%;从绝对增产潜力来看,粮食增产潜力空间分布大体呈现西南高东北低的趋势;从相对增产比例来看,大体呈现西高东低的趋势。his research uses traditional statistical and geostatistical methods based on GIS technology and estimates potential grain production by Kriging interpolation under the reasonably designed test conditions. The results show that the spatial variation coefficients of wheat, corn and rice yields in the experimental area are all the moderate variability obeying the normal distribution, characterized by strong spatial correlation within a certain area; the average highest yields of wheat, corn and rice in Henan under the test conditions are 7 027.55 kg · hm^-2,8 038.36 kg· hm^-2 and 8 280.17 kg · hm^-2 respetively; Due to existing sown area in Henan and double cropping system of wheat-corn and wheat-rice, the grain production in Henan can reach 75. 986 1 million ton and production increasing potential 18. 849 2 million ton, increasing by 32.99% compared to the actual production in 2012; The spatial distribution of grain increased production, from the absolute potential, shows the trend that the Southwest is higher, the Northeast is lower generally, and from the relative potential, shows the trend that the West is higher and the East is lower.

关 键 词：试验数据 可实现粮食生产潜力 空间分布 

分 类 号：S341.1[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术] F326.11[农业科学—农艺学]