基础设施PPP项目脆弱性评估方法  

Vulnerability evaluation method of infrastructure PPP project

作　　者：季闯[1] 黄伟[2] 袁竞峰[1] 李启明[1] 李荣平 

机构地区：[1]东南大学土木工程学院,南京210096 [2]三江学院,南京210012 [3]首创南京投资管理有限公司,南京210014

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2016年第3期613-622,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71001027;71472037)~~

摘　　要：为获知一个PPP(public private partnership)项目暴露于外部环境不利影响的程度、抵抗干扰和自我调节恢复的能力,提出一种:PPP项目脆弱性评估方法.将PPP项目看作一个由功能、性能、可盈利性、可维护性、可运营性和可持续性6个维度组成的系统,引入可靠性理论,根据识别出的27个脆弱性影响因素与各维度之间的关系,推导出PPP项目系统可靠性函数,通过评价系统各维度失效程度确定系统的可靠度,计算结果反映了PPP项目脆弱性的大小.将PPP项目脆弱性评估模型应用于某大桥PPP项目脆弱性评估,结果显示该项目具有较大的脆弱性,应加强项目的盈利和可持续性方面的管理.For learning the degree of exposure to external adversary impacts, the ability of resisting distur- bance and self-regulation as well as recovery of one public private partnership （PPP） project, an evaluation model for the vulnerability of PPP based on reliability theory is presented. PPP project is defined as a system composed of six dimensions such as functionality, performance, profitability, maintainability, oper- ability and sustainability. Reliability theory is introduced to build the reliability function of PPP system according to the relationship between the six parts and the identified twenty-seven vulnerability factors. The system reliability is calculated based on the failure degree of each dimension, and the results represent the vulnerability of PPP system. The evaluation model is applied in a certain PPP project for vulnerability evaluating, the result shows that the vulnerability of that project is quite high, and the management of project profitability and sustainability should be strengthen.

关 键 词：政府与社会资本合作(PPP) 脆弱性 可靠性理论 评估方法 

分 类 号：F294[经济管理—国民经济]