随机-模糊概率统计法在边坡岩体参数综合评价中的应用  

The Application and Comprehensive Evaluation of Random-Fuzzy Probability Statistics Method in Slope of Rumei Hydropower Station

作　　者：罗彬红 孙花玲 

机构地区：[1]中国能源建设股份有限公司,北京100022

出　　处：《土工基础》2016年第1期50-54,共5页Soil Engineering and Foundation

摘　　要：边坡稳定性评价系统中最大的瓶颈是评价因子的离散性,且赋存状态层间性明显,据此,随机抽样100组岩石力学室内试验结果作为总样本,引入随机-模糊概率统计方法,将处于不同稳定级别的因子出现隶属概率作为其在该级别下的隶属度量值,有效避免了选取评价因子实测值时主观意识参与过多。同时,基于概率统计理论,将头脑风暴法中不同专家的意见进行数理统计后归纳总结,得出具有代表性的权重值,更能综合考虑不同专家认可的侧重点,取得较好的效果。将研究结果应用到模糊评价系统中,对如美水电站左岸边坡进行岩体力学参数强度评价,得到了较好的结果。The biggest bottleneck in Slope Stability Evaluation System is the actual occurrence state of evaluation factor is discrete,and the interlayer is clear.For this,we took samples of results of rock mechanics laboratory test from about 100 groups as the total sample,and introduced statistical theory to put the membership probabilities of factor under different stable levels as the membership value in the level,which avoiding excessive subjective sense when measured value is selected to participate in the evaluation.There are many methods of determining the weights,but some problems are existing in those.On the basis of the theory of probability and statistics,and using the brainstorming method to summarize the opinions of different experts in mathematical statistics,the representative weight values are obtained,which can take emphasis of different experts into comprehensive consideration and achieve better results.The findings are applied in the fuzzy evaluation system to evaluate strength of the rock slope in the left bank of Rumei power station,and results are better able to reflect the slope stability.

关 键 词：边坡工程 随机-模糊概率统计 隶属度 权重 模糊评价 

分 类 号：TU443[建筑科学—岩土工程]