新疆“丝路沿线”城市发展质量空间计量分析  

A Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Urban Development Quality in Xinjiang

作　　者：李松霞[1] 张军民[2] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832003 [2]石河子大学理学院,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《新疆大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第2期17-23,共7页Journal of Xinjiang University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"玛纳斯河流域绿洲经济-生态景观空间分异机理研究"(41361025);国家社科基金青年项目"基于包容性发展的新疆城镇化质量测度与提升路径研究"(13CGL147)

摘　　要：新疆"丝绸之路"沿线城市发展质量及其一体化进程,对建设"丝绸之路经济带"核心区功能至关重要。通过构建城市发展质量系统评价模型,从空间关联及协调发展两个方面分析新疆丝绸之路沿线22个市(县)城市的发展质量。结果表明:其城市发展质量普遍较低且差异极大,空间分异表现为单调的线性分异和非紧凑的松散形态,形成了"中部高—两端低"空间结构,无明显的空间集聚及关联功能,契合城市化"核心—边缘"分异模式;各维度空间差异更突出:分要素空间差异大于整体差异,其中社会、经济、生态等分维度的空间一致性较差,经济与生态维度表现为反向的分异取向。再对城市发展质量进行耦合协调性分析得出:其城市发展质量处于不协调的初级发展阶段,中度以下失调城市占77%,各类城市发展都处于无序增长阶段,其中西部和东部呈"低—低"拟合形态,中部呈"高—低"非拟合形态。现阶段应强化新疆"丝路沿线"城市的集聚功能和团聚效益,加快该区域经济城市化进程。The urban development quality and integration process of the cities along the Silk Road are key to the role played by the core functions of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Xinjiang. By building up a quality evaluation model of urban development, this paper analyzed the urban development quality from the aspects of the spatial correlation and concerted development of the 22 cities （counties） along the Silk Road in Xinjiang. The results showed that the development quality is generally low and very differentiated. The spatial distribution showed a monotonous linear differentiation and a non-compact loose form, in the form of a ＂central high with low-ends＂ type with no significant centralization and correlation, which coincides with the ＂core-periphery＂ distribution model. The spatial difference of each dimension is more prominent： each dimension is greater than the whole --- the spatial coherence of social, eco- nomic, and ecological dimensions is poor and the relationship between economic and ecological dimensions is the spatial distribution of reverse orientation. The coupled analysis of the coordination of urban quality development showed that the urban development quality is at the uncoordinated primary stage of development. 77% cities are un- der moderate disorders. Cities grow disorderly. In particular, cities in west and east China are in a ＂low-low＂ fitting type while those in central China in a ＂high-low＂ type. At present, the urban agglomeration and integration benefits should be strengthened for cities along the Silk Road in Xinjiang to speed up the process of urbanization of the re- gional economy.

关 键 词：城市发展质量 空间计量分析 协调度 丝路沿线 新疆 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]